WINNERS NEVER QUIT ,; Besigye Should Borrow The Inspirational Stories Of Senegalese Former President Abdalla Wade And Railla Odinga

 

 WINNERS NEVER QUIT; Dr Kiiza Besigye Still Stands A Good Chance Of Becoming Ugandan President If He Doesn’t Waste Way

·        Besigye Should Borrow The Inspirational Stories Of Senegalese Former President Abdalla Wade And Railla Odinga

After contesting and losing four consecutive times Dr Kiiza Besigye announced that he will not avail himself for the 2021 elections.

Although the news of Besigye’s exit from the political space was largely expected, it was also bad news of some sort for the Besigye brigade (to mean those who have total faith in his brand of politics).

Believe it or not, the man from Rukungiiri had cut a cult figure as the enduring brand of Ugandan opposition politics.

He had endured persecution, harassment, sprinkled with tear gas and shed tears and holds the record being the most arrested person in the world.

Every year Besigye has been arrested and detained an average of not less than ten times.

BESIGYE’S CONTRIBUTION

But it’s fair to say that Besigye has made his contribution to the political landscape of the country

His political activism will be remembered the reforms that have changed the social sphere of the country. For instance In 2001 when he first declared his intentions to contest against president Museveni, Besigye declared that he would scrap graduated tax which had been a thorn in the flesh for Ugandans above 18 years.

The obnoxious tax had been introduced by the British colonialists not only to contribute to the revenue of the colonial government, but to make Ugandans above 18 years more productive.

The defaulters of this annual tax were normally humiliated by tying them on a rope, dragged to the district headquarters and given corporal punishments or imprisoned.

Most men used to ‘takeoff’ whenever they interfaced with the tax collectors.

The tax was so embarrassing that men dreaded the day they forgot their graduated ticket at home or had not paid at all.

So when announced that he was going to scrap graduated tax, all Ugandan men above 18 vowed to give him their votes. Museveni was faced with a real possibility of losing the 2001 elections mostly because of this graduated tax. Museveni had no choice but to quickly comply and promise to scrap graduated tax. Most Ugandans breathed a sigh of relief thanks to Besigye.

Besigye also put Museveni on task when he announced that he would increase the intake of students to Makerere University by over 2000 students. Ooh, Museveni had to make another concession allowing an extra 2000 students to be admitted at Makerere University.

Although Besigye was eventually defeated, he had put a mark on Ugandan society. He was the master of social change that Ugandans had craved for.

TABS ON MUSEVENI

The situation got so messy that Museveni who revels in having ideology was forced to get native with Besigye.  Instead of preaching ideology as a point of strength, Museveni sank as low as accusing Besigye of having contracted HIV/aids.

Museveni was warning Ugandans that they were wasting time voting for Besigye because he was soon going to die of HIV/aids!

It’s now almost twenty years, but Besigye has not died of the terrible pandemic.

When Besigye contested again in 2006, 2011 and 2016, he was not as effective in pushing the agenda as he was in the 2001 election but he still managed to shake the state to its core.

He had lost some steam and run out of ideas that could put Museveni in an uncomfortable position. Alternatively Museveni’s machinery had eventually leanrt how to deal with his former doctor.

DILUTION OF THE BRAND

Along the way Besigye inadequacies started getting exposed. He was accused of failing to build durable structures for his FDC party.

Although he still enjoyed mass support around the country, he was also exposed as a poor man manager by fellow party members. Many of them including the likes of Hon Alex Onzima, Hon Betty Kamya, Hon Beatrice Anywar and many others abandoned him and joined Museveni’s government.

Besigye also suffered from the proclivity of speaking with a lot of aggressiveness which meant that his brand soon suffered from the image of being anger-driven than issue-driven and lost most moderates.

The last kick in the teeth for Besigye’s bid for the Ugandan presidency is contained in the judgment by the high court which stated that the 2001, 2006, and 2012 elections had been rigged with lots of inconsistencies but they (inconsistencies and irregularities) were not substantial enough to affect the outcome of the aggregate vote.

That court verdict put Besigye in a position of resignation from the electoral process tot eh extent that he never went to court for the 2016 elections.

If the courts indeed agree that Besigye had been unfairly denied of victory, then what alternative did he poses at his disposal?

Indeed Besigye had o choice but to abandon the process. Contesting for the fifth time in a flawed process was not going to be a viable option.

Besigye now knows that an election is not a viable instrument for actualizing regime change.

A MOLE?

Besigye’s continued attempt of acquiring power through the election process was beginning to appear like a project of legitimizing president Museveni’s regime.

The conspiracy theory was advanced by the fact that since Besigye comes from western Uganda like Museveni, and then his participation in the election is geared at rubber stamping the continued stay of the NRM.

Besigye couldn’t extricate himself from another conspiracy which stated that he has powerful business empire which has never been sabotaged by the regime like it has been done to other members of the opposition.

He was thus declared a mole with an agenda for legitimizing Museveni’s stay in power.

Having contested four times, Besigye holds the world record for having contested and lost more than four times.

If Besigye quits completely, he will have joined the league of other serial opposition leaders who tried hard but failed to capture power like Morgan Tsivangirai who failed to remove Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe , Etienne Tsesekedi tried but failed to remove Joseph Mobutu in Zaire , Mohammed Eri Baradei failed to defeat Hosni Mubarak  of Egypt.

But Besigye should be inspired by the story of another man who endured long spells of contesting many times in an election for the Senegalese presidency.

Former Senegalese president Abdalla Wade contested four consecutive times but lost to poet president Sedar Senghor in 1978 , Abdou Diof in 1980s before wining on the fifth attempt in 2000.

But it must be told here that by the time Wade won in 2000, he was almost heading straight into his 80s.

Having been born in 1926, there are those who believe that Wade was born much earlier. This means that wade was almost twenty years older than Besigye’s age today.

Born in 1956, Besigye is around 66 years old. Even if he takes a break for this five year term, he will have the opportunity to comeback in 2026 when he will be around 71 years age, an age at which h will still be much younger than Museveni is today. By that time (in 2026) Museveni will be deep in his 80s with probably ready to retire and handover.

But that is a matter of complete conjecture. What we can state here is that by 2026, it will be very difficult for Museveni to beat Besigye again in an election.

For this we can speculate that Besigye still has a very good chance of becoming Ugandan president if, he doesn’t get wasted along the way.

What he needs to do is back up the NUP candidate Hon Robert kyagulanyi and then contest again in 2026.

If he does become a kingmaker in this 2021 election he will be following closely in the same league of enduring politicians like Railla Omoro Odinga who started contesting many years ago, became kingmaker by supporting Mwai Kibaki , getting cheated along the way but he is now in contention again.

As I speak now Railla Odinga looks like a very good bet to become the next president of Kenya. Besigye must contend with the famous saying that quitters never win and winners never quit.

The author, Fred Daka Kamwada is political risk analyst and a blogger

kamwadafred@gmail.com