‘’I DON’T BELIEVE IN HEAVEN’’; President Museveni Sterns Religious Leaders with His Blasphemous-Atheist Beliefs

 

‘’I DON’T BELIEVE IN HEAVEN’’; President Museveni Sterns Religious Leaders with His Blasphemous-Atheist Beliefs

·       M7 should know that where science fails, religion becomes a powerful option for hope in a hopeless society.

 

‘’for me I am here, I was born here; I will die here and get buried here. I don’t believe in heaven myself’’    said president Museveni.

He made the sacrilegious statement last Saturday (28^th August 2020) during the national prayer day which took place at state house Entebbe.

The prayers which were attended by almost the entire ‘high command’ of the religious leaders was aimed at bringing back the ‘Godly feel’ in a country whose religious places have been under lockdown for the last six months.

The religious leaders convinced the Ugandan president to have prayers together with the cryptic intentions of luring him to relax the restrictions and open up religious places for prayers.

After all had been said and done by a clique of religious leaders led by bishop Kizito Luwalira and pastor Joseph Serwadda , president Museveni exposed his lack of faith in religions when he labored to emphasize the importance of science in safeguarding life.

He occasionally used the bible by quoting verses where lockdowns were imposed when epidemics sprung up in the Old Testament.

He particularly referred to a verse in Jeremiah where it recommends the banishment of lepers from main stream society.

THE BOMBSHELL

Museveni then dropped a bombshell when he told the congregation that for him he doesn’t believe in heaven.

The fact that heaven is the pivotal objective of most religions (a particular foundation for Christianity and Islam) mean that anyone who doesn’t have faith in ‘life after death’ is fundamentally considered an outcast, pagan or at best an atheist.

Christianity was founded specifically to address the issue of assuring a life after death. The most important religious doctrines presupposes that Good behavior earns the believer a ticket to heaven while the sinners are confined to hell fire.

For very many years that is the principle that has made religion relevant.

Without that doctrine, religion is dead.

Therefore anyone who doesn’t have faith in the chance of going to heaven is largely considered to be an atheist.

There is no way people can be controlled without hope for life after death.  Life after death is the center piece upon which religion thrives.

Since nobody knows what happens when we die, religion has remained the most relevant option for the world in regard to offering assurance after death.

Therefore fear of death drives people to believe that they need to die when they have reconciled their evil deeds with God.  If someone has been a sinner, he (the sinner) then goes on to repent in church for his sins to be forgiven.

That hope (for heaven) is what has made religion the opium of the masses (as Karl max is known to have said many years ago)

Any slight contradiction with that projection of life after death is blasphemy of the highest order.

President Museveni seems to have got away with it (with his lack of faith in life after death) but it is one of the biggest sins anyone can commit against most religions. Not even the fearless dictator Idi Amin could make such a statement.

If he had made that statement in a Muslim leaning country, a jihad would have been declared against him.

Psychologically speaking, that statement summed up the fundamental reason why churches and mosques have remained closed, six months after the lockdown was imposed in March 2020.

 

The fact that Uganda is regarded as a God fearing country makes it one of the terrible blunders he (M7) has ever made as a leader.

Although Ugandan is largely a secular country, it has a national motto ‘’For God and My Country’’ that projects it as a God fearing and religions country.

SEVO AND SCIENCE

Museveni has got a very big faith in science. When he imposed the lockdown he justified it by suggesting that he had been ‘science-led’

Some of us had to remind him (in our writings) that it was wrong to put total faith in the modern day medical scientists because they have so far failed to find vaccines and cures for  pandemics like HIV/AIDS, Ebola, Zika virus, SARS , and corona virus itself will not be an exception.

Today the world is still grappling with the idea of finding a vaccine that can cure the corona virus but the most realistic expectation is that it may take long before they find it.

China and Russia are quietly bragging that they have discovered their vaccines, but nobody can confirm their claims.

Therefore the science community is in such an embarrassing situation at the moment that there are reports that most of the innovations in medicine were actually coined in the 19^th century. This means that the young scientists of the 21^st century have been either redundant or incompetent.

Although there are powerful innovations in the field of technology where we have stuff like drones, there is almost nothing innovative in the field of medical science at the moment.

AND REMEMBER, WHERE SCIENCE FAILS, RELIGIOUS FAITH TAKES OVER.

Some of us have for many years argued that religion is a backward concept that has kept the world imprisoned in backward traditions , but some incidents have happened that have made it (religion) appear a powerful option.

In cases where science has failed to resolve fundamental question, the religious groups have emerged with powerful consoling messages of hope (not necessarily practical solutions but faith based psychological feelings)

President Museveni might be right in his absolute belief in science, like most of us, but he should be honest enough to admit that medical scientists are not as effective as we thought.

Like I said earlier, where science fails, religion becomes a powerful option for society.

That probably explains why he should consider opening up mosques and churches to give them the chance to pray for the evaporation of the corona virus.

The religious leaders may not condemn what president Museveni said in regard to his lack of faith in heaven or life after death as sacrilegious or blasphemous, but they now know that they are dealing with a very big atheist leader.

The Author Fred Daka Kamwada Is a Voluntary Think And Blogger

kamwadafred@gmail.com    

 

 

 

 

 

WHITES DON’T NECESSARILY HATE BLACKS; It’s Black American Police Officers Who Should Be Mandated with Apprehending Afro-Americans to Avoid Police Brutality

 

WHITES DON’T NECESSARILY HATE BLACKS; It’s Black American Police Officers Who Should Be Mandated with Apprehending Afro-Americans to Avoid Police Brutality

American president Abraham Lincoln declared the freedom of the black slaves was white

Last week another brutal shooting of a black American by a white officer took place in Wisconsin sparking outrage all over the world.

The protests have been so huge that the American National Guard has been deployed on the streets to assist the police to calm down the situation.

When George Floyd was strangled to death by a white police officer early this year it sparked off The Black Lives Matter campaign which seemed to send a statement that NEVER again will such a thing happen again.

But it has happened again barely a year after the George Floyd incident.

This time Jacob Blake was shot seven times in the back in Wisconsin by this month but has miraculously survived with the bare straps of his life.

It’s a pity that these shootings and killings have taken a predictable phenomenon, but there has not been a lasting solution found to cut it out completely.

All we have had have been protestations, condemnations and speeches by world leaders and righting thinking members of the global village.

If racism is horrible, abominable, and totally unacceptable why don’t we get a legal instrument that makes it a criminal offense?

Why don’t we find solutions that can avert such shootings?

Why is the United Nations and other world bodies like the European Union silent about racism in the world?  Why are blacks not advancing lasting solutions to protect them from being killed by white policemen?

These white versus black confrontations that be easily dealt with if there was an interest in ending it.

When George Floyd was strangled to death by the white policeman, I came up with an idea (on my private blog) that could have prevented a repeat on Jacob Blake from being shot like a common thief.

My view was that the American system must make it mandatory for black Americans to be arrested by the fellow blacks. Once a black American police officer shoots a fellow black American, it will not spark off the racial debate we are having when a white police officer does it.

This alone will avert the kind of undertones that arise whenever a white police officer apprehends a black man.

It’s this procedure which can avoid this friction because normally some criminal situations are interpreted as racial, well as not.

Although the white policemen have also been very brutal, most times our fellow blacks have been violent in their reaction to the authorities.

This brutality of the police towards blacks has sometimes been misinterpreted as racism yet it’s not the case all the time.

THE DETAILS

For instance while the world was horrified with the way Blake was shot the American police officers issued a statement suggesting that Mr. Blake had strongly resisted arrest: He “forcefully fought” with officers even after being hit twice by a Taser and ignoring orders to drop a knife that he held in his left hand.

When you look at the Joe Blake video, you see him adamantly running away from the police sparking a possible confrontation. If Jacob Blake had stood and spoke to the policemen, it’s improbable that such an incident would have arisen at all.

It’s true that that there are white supremacists not only in America but also in the world in general. But our blacks also make it inevitable to be treated in such a way.

In fact Blake had been reported for cries he had committed several months ago.

The marginalization of the black race

It is obviously true that the black race has suffered marginalization for very many years. For very many years blacks were enslaved by the whites.

 But it’s also important to note that most of the people who fought against slave trade and its practices were whites. American president Abraham Lincoln who banned slavery was white.

British antislavery trade activist William Wilberforce was white.

This therefore means that it’s not necessarily true that whites hate blacks.

The marginalization of the blacks was brought to its peak when the South African government introduced apartheid that compounded the differences between the two races. Blacks were not allowed to share hotel rooms, bus seats, and may other facilities with whites.

Although apartheid was legal in the South African legal system, it was morally wrong.  It was the American and British government which strongly supported the apartheid regime in South Africa while the rest of the world opposed it.

When apartheid was finally defeated with the eventually release of Nelson Mandela from a 27 year jail term, most of the whites celebrated with us , the black race .

When the Americans rallied and voted for a black president Barrack Obama, the whites celebrated equally with the blacks.

It’s also important to also note when George Floyd was killed by a white policeman, the majority of the protestors were white.

This demonstrates that there is nothing fundamental fueling hatred between the two races. This is also another indication that the white supremacists are the minority.

 

 

 The way forward

The international community should a draft a law that criminalizes racism and its tendencies with long prison sentences and fines.

Secondly, the American security system must ensure that black police officers are the ones mandated to arrest blacks.

This will be similar to the global tradition where women police officers are the ones mandated to arrest women criminals to avert gender abuse between men and women.

But most important of all, we should desist from interpreting the criminal tendencies as racism, well as NOT.

The author Fred Daka Kamwada is a social political analyst and a blogger

Chat with him on kamwadafred@gmail.com

 

 

 

WINNERS NEVER QUIT ,; Besigye Should Borrow The Inspirational Stories Of Senegalese Former President Abdalla Wade And Railla Odinga

 

 WINNERS NEVER QUIT; Dr Kiiza Besigye Still Stands A Good Chance Of Becoming Ugandan President If He Doesn’t Waste Way

·        Besigye Should Borrow The Inspirational Stories Of Senegalese Former President Abdalla Wade And Railla Odinga

After contesting and losing four consecutive times Dr Kiiza Besigye announced that he will not avail himself for the 2021 elections.

Although the news of Besigye’s exit from the political space was largely expected, it was also bad news of some sort for the Besigye brigade (to mean those who have total faith in his brand of politics).

Believe it or not, the man from Rukungiiri had cut a cult figure as the enduring brand of Ugandan opposition politics.

He had endured persecution, harassment, sprinkled with tear gas and shed tears and holds the record being the most arrested person in the world.

Every year Besigye has been arrested and detained an average of not less than ten times.

BESIGYE’S CONTRIBUTION

But it’s fair to say that Besigye has made his contribution to the political landscape of the country

His political activism will be remembered the reforms that have changed the social sphere of the country. For instance In 2001 when he first declared his intentions to contest against president Museveni, Besigye declared that he would scrap graduated tax which had been a thorn in the flesh for Ugandans above 18 years.

The obnoxious tax had been introduced by the British colonialists not only to contribute to the revenue of the colonial government, but to make Ugandans above 18 years more productive.

The defaulters of this annual tax were normally humiliated by tying them on a rope, dragged to the district headquarters and given corporal punishments or imprisoned.

Most men used to ‘takeoff’ whenever they interfaced with the tax collectors.

The tax was so embarrassing that men dreaded the day they forgot their graduated ticket at home or had not paid at all.

So when announced that he was going to scrap graduated tax, all Ugandan men above 18 vowed to give him their votes. Museveni was faced with a real possibility of losing the 2001 elections mostly because of this graduated tax. Museveni had no choice but to quickly comply and promise to scrap graduated tax. Most Ugandans breathed a sigh of relief thanks to Besigye.

Besigye also put Museveni on task when he announced that he would increase the intake of students to Makerere University by over 2000 students. Ooh, Museveni had to make another concession allowing an extra 2000 students to be admitted at Makerere University.

Although Besigye was eventually defeated, he had put a mark on Ugandan society. He was the master of social change that Ugandans had craved for.

TABS ON MUSEVENI

The situation got so messy that Museveni who revels in having ideology was forced to get native with Besigye.  Instead of preaching ideology as a point of strength, Museveni sank as low as accusing Besigye of having contracted HIV/aids.

Museveni was warning Ugandans that they were wasting time voting for Besigye because he was soon going to die of HIV/aids!

It’s now almost twenty years, but Besigye has not died of the terrible pandemic.

When Besigye contested again in 2006, 2011 and 2016, he was not as effective in pushing the agenda as he was in the 2001 election but he still managed to shake the state to its core.

He had lost some steam and run out of ideas that could put Museveni in an uncomfortable position. Alternatively Museveni’s machinery had eventually leanrt how to deal with his former doctor.

DILUTION OF THE BRAND

Along the way Besigye inadequacies started getting exposed. He was accused of failing to build durable structures for his FDC party.

Although he still enjoyed mass support around the country, he was also exposed as a poor man manager by fellow party members. Many of them including the likes of Hon Alex Onzima, Hon Betty Kamya, Hon Beatrice Anywar and many others abandoned him and joined Museveni’s government.

Besigye also suffered from the proclivity of speaking with a lot of aggressiveness which meant that his brand soon suffered from the image of being anger-driven than issue-driven and lost most moderates.

The last kick in the teeth for Besigye’s bid for the Ugandan presidency is contained in the judgment by the high court which stated that the 2001, 2006, and 2012 elections had been rigged with lots of inconsistencies but they (inconsistencies and irregularities) were not substantial enough to affect the outcome of the aggregate vote.

That court verdict put Besigye in a position of resignation from the electoral process tot eh extent that he never went to court for the 2016 elections.

If the courts indeed agree that Besigye had been unfairly denied of victory, then what alternative did he poses at his disposal?

Indeed Besigye had o choice but to abandon the process. Contesting for the fifth time in a flawed process was not going to be a viable option.

Besigye now knows that an election is not a viable instrument for actualizing regime change.

A MOLE?

Besigye’s continued attempt of acquiring power through the election process was beginning to appear like a project of legitimizing president Museveni’s regime.

The conspiracy theory was advanced by the fact that since Besigye comes from western Uganda like Museveni, and then his participation in the election is geared at rubber stamping the continued stay of the NRM.

Besigye couldn’t extricate himself from another conspiracy which stated that he has powerful business empire which has never been sabotaged by the regime like it has been done to other members of the opposition.

He was thus declared a mole with an agenda for legitimizing Museveni’s stay in power.

Having contested four times, Besigye holds the world record for having contested and lost more than four times.

If Besigye quits completely, he will have joined the league of other serial opposition leaders who tried hard but failed to capture power like Morgan Tsivangirai who failed to remove Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe , Etienne Tsesekedi tried but failed to remove Joseph Mobutu in Zaire , Mohammed Eri Baradei failed to defeat Hosni Mubarak  of Egypt.

But Besigye should be inspired by the story of another man who endured long spells of contesting many times in an election for the Senegalese presidency.

Former Senegalese president Abdalla Wade contested four consecutive times but lost to poet president Sedar Senghor in 1978 , Abdou Diof in 1980s before wining on the fifth attempt in 2000.

But it must be told here that by the time Wade won in 2000, he was almost heading straight into his 80s.

Having been born in 1926, there are those who believe that Wade was born much earlier. This means that wade was almost twenty years older than Besigye’s age today.

Born in 1956, Besigye is around 66 years old. Even if he takes a break for this five year term, he will have the opportunity to comeback in 2026 when he will be around 71 years age, an age at which h will still be much younger than Museveni is today. By that time (in 2026) Museveni will be deep in his 80s with probably ready to retire and handover.

But that is a matter of complete conjecture. What we can state here is that by 2026, it will be very difficult for Museveni to beat Besigye again in an election.

For this we can speculate that Besigye still has a very good chance of becoming Ugandan president if, he doesn’t get wasted along the way.

What he needs to do is back up the NUP candidate Hon Robert kyagulanyi and then contest again in 2026.

If he does become a kingmaker in this 2021 election he will be following closely in the same league of enduring politicians like Railla Omoro Odinga who started contesting many years ago, became kingmaker by supporting Mwai Kibaki , getting cheated along the way but he is now in contention again.

As I speak now Railla Odinga looks like a very good bet to become the next president of Kenya. Besigye must contend with the famous saying that quitters never win and winners never quit.

The author, Fred Daka Kamwada is political risk analyst and a blogger

kamwadafred@gmail.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gen Tumukunde’s Assertion That 7,000 NRA Troops Dislodged a Government Force of 65,000 Must Be Put into Proper Context

 

 Gen Tumukunde’s Assertion That 7,000 NRA Troops Dislodged a Government Force of 65,000 Must Be Put into Proper Context

·        Gen Museveni’s 1986 Victory Was 20% Military And 80% Luck

2021 Presidential aspirant and former NRA commander Gen Henry Tumukunde revealed that the National Resistance Army had 7,000 guns which they used to dislodge 69,000 government troops from Kampala.

The retired general who was appearing on the capital gang, a Saturday radio talk-show that transpires on Capital Fm was trying to suggest that it’s possible for a relatively despised force to dislodge a well equipped army from power-which is entirely true.

While Gen Tumukunde was making a very strong statement to motivate the current forces that seek to remove Museveni from power notwithstanding the disadvantages they face, we thought it’s also fair that we make a fair assessment on what happened on the run up to the NRA takeover in 1986.

I am  are not in any way trying to contradict or disagree with Gen Tumukunde but trying to build on what he was trying to say in regard to how the NRA managed to snatch power from a well resourced military government.

Some of us are not soldiers and don’t actually wish to be involved in anything military, but we are very big military enthusiasts and big time students of world history. We therefore claim some degree of knowledge on what caused regime change in most of the countries around the world.

So many military enthusiasts, especially the ambitious politicians have used the NRA victory as a benchmark for forces that start humble without looking into the circumstances under which the NRA secured victory.

And I must state here, with all due respect to the NRA commanders and its leader that theirs was more of miracle than anything else.

When you look at how they kicked off the war, how they managed to elude government forces and how they eventually managed to take power, you will reach the same conclusion that it wasn’t necessarily a well planned military venture but a fortunate undertaking.

Yes, you need luck in most of what we do, and the NRA had plenty of it.

But most important of all is the fact that the disorganization from within the UPC government contributed over 80% to the NRA victory than the strategic military knowledge of Museveni and his commanders.

THE HISTORY IN PERSPECTIVE

President Museveni had been part of the post Amin government and served as minister of defense. There are claims that he had recruited over 9,000 troops in FRONASA.  This in effect means that he had over 9,000 weapons at his disposal.

How come he attacked Kabamba with just 27b guns?

This simply means that he had not expected to go to the bush in the first place but was forced by forces beyond his expectations to do so.

Alternatively, if indeed he had plans for waging war, as it is being postulated, then we can say that he was not a military strategist of any measure. Going to war with only 27 guns was not only suicidal but a very lunatic undertaking.

Bu using just 27 guns to wage a war simply implies that Museveni was largely treading on very slippery grounds. But a few factors worked in his favor.

The one fundamental factor that played in his favor was that the Obote government had not built enough administrative capacity to fight an insurgency. 

When Amin was overthrown in April 1979, Uganda was largely in the hands of the Tanzanians until close to 1982.

The Ugandan army had been dismantled by the Tanzanians.  By the time the Obotes took power in December 1980, they were beginning to recruit a national army.

Before they could even build that army, the Museveni’s and Kayiiras , were already running to the bush to wage war in February 1981, just two months after UPC had taken power!.

As an occupation force, the Tanzanians couldn’t engage into the hullabaloo of chasing around a few armed men like Museveni and Kayiira, whom they knew very well to be of not much military threat anyway.

The same two gentlemen had tried to fight Amin but failed to even hold a very small village as territory for their guerilla activity. For them to claim waging war, was therefore one of the biggest jokes of the time.

So Obote and his men had nothing to worry about them waging war because they had failed together in the fight against Amin.  Obote knew, more than anybody else, how difficult it was to wage war against a sitting government.

THE RISKS

You also need to weigh the risks undertaken before to wage war. While kayira attacked lubiri barracks with his UFM rebel outfit, Museveni ran over a 100 miles from Kampala to attack kabamba.

I must however state here that both military attacks on Lubiri and Kabamba failed miserably. 

But credit goes to kayiira’s UFM , as statement of intent, because they attacked a fully fledged military garrison in the capital city of the country

Museveni’s option of attacking Kabamba was cowardly. Why? Because kabamba was a military training school and not necessarily a fully fledged military installation.

Now when you go to the events of how he captured power, you also need to look at a few factors that played out.

When Gen Tito Okello removed Obote from power on 27^th july 1985 , they called all rebel groups to join them in forming a government. This more than else created space for the NRA to grow as formidable force from the miserable force it had been.

In fact the NRA took advantage of Gen Tito Okello’s peace overtures to overrun 14 government positions in one day!

The military junta couldn’t defend positions because they thought they were due to form government with NRA. By the time the Okellos woke up, the NRA had taken over the whole of western Uganda.

The NRA took total advantage and recruited in western Uganda but still only managed to get 7,900 troops which Gen Tumukunde talked about on the capital gang which they pitied against Okello’s junta that had over 69000 troops.

In military terms, the NRA was outnumbered by an astronomical military ratio of ten to one soldiers.

Without aerial power in term s of jet fighters,or strong artillery such a small force couldn’t  dream of victory against such a big force unless it was backed up by advanced technological weapons in form an air force or superior artillery weaponry-which the NRA never possessed. 

But a few factors played in their favor.

THE JULIUS NYERERE INFLUENCE

One was that influence of Tanzanian president Nyerere dissuaded Gen Okello Tito from defending Kampala. Okello had made the fatal mistake of recalling former Amin soldiers.

President Julius Nyerere picked the phone and blasted Gen Tito for being stupid enough to recall back evil forces they had chased away less than five years ago in 1979.

As a consequence, Nyerere gave Museveni more support weapons and cars which beefed up his onslaught on Kampala. Gen Tito was left with no choice but to flee and leave Kampala without putting up a dignified fight.

Meanwhile there is another untold story to explain the mass withdraw of the UNLA from Kampala.

The second reason was because Museveni struck a deal with some elements in the junta like Gen Moses Ali whose deal was to withdraw rather than putting up a fight for Kampala, which they did.

This explains why the NRA literary marched through the undefended Kampala and only faced individual troop resistance.

Had the forces decided to defend Kampala, Museveni was not going to get beyond Busega.

Therefore Gen Tumukunde’s assertion that the NRA used 7.900 soldiers to overrun a government that had 69,000 troops must be understood contextually because there are other factors that helped the NRA to achieve victory.  

 

Otherwise it’s largely misleading to judge the NRA victory by basing purely on military terms. The truth of the matter is that the NRA was aided by very many factors which are not military in nature.

 This obvious weak state of the NRA largely explains why Museveni was humble in the beginning and managed to embrace people of divergent views in the broad based government.

Yet today he sounds very arrogant because he has built genuine military power base that doesn’t require luck to sustain itself in power. That’s why he openly tells the world that ‘nobody can disturb Uganda’. 

The truth is that Museveni takeover was more of miracle of the highest proportions than a measure of military might. Although Museveni must be credited for taking the risk of waging a war under very difficult circumstances, a lot of outside factors played 80% in his favor. 

The Author Fred Daka Kamwada Is A Political Risk Analyst And A Blogger

 

kamwadafred@gmail.com

IS NORBERT MAO’S POLITICAL CAREER OVER?; What Happens To The Principal Of A School With A Center Number But Without Students?

 

IS NORBERT MAO’S POLITICAL CAREER OVER?; What Happens To The Principal Of A School With A Center Number But Without Students?

Norbert Mao, also famously known as chairman Mao is a man known for his intellectual wit, balanced debating skills and one of the few Ugandan orators blessed with very good idioms.

But the former district chairman and Member of Parliament for Gulu municipality has endured a very chaotic reign as leader of the Democratic Party.

The ping-pong between him and a large section of DP members has dragged on for long without getting settled until it resulted into a mass defection to the recently formed NUP.

Out of the many DP members of parliament who have deserted, he has only remained with four!. And all the twelve members of The Grand Old Party have defected to the newly created National Unity Party and swore allegiance to the party president Hon Robert Kyagulanyi.

As a former guild president of Makerere University, Mao surprisingly doesn’t seem to have gained enough political experience to thrust him into a successful leader at the national level. He was expected to play his cards with a lot of caution to avoid what befell him.

HOW HE MESSED IT

During a television program on the Thursday night, in a bid to water down the mass defection of DP members, Mao said that Bobiwine has a slogan which says that ‘’bikwasse Kyagulanyi’’ , which literally translates that ‘’handover all your excess baggage to kyagulanyi’’.

He therefore qualified the statement by saying that all the DP members who had defected were part of ‘the excess baggage that had left DP and handed over to kyagulanyi’.

But one strong DP members who also happens to have defected to NUP, Mukono municipality MP Hon Betty Namboze quickly challenged him to also handover his wife Naomi to kyagulanyi , (Mao also had a bitter divorce with his wife Naomi recently)

Mao, was shocked to the marrow and couldn’t handle the rest of the proceedings of the debate as he pondered on how to disentangle himself from the mess he has found himself into.

Later on he made a honest statement when he said that he believes that someday, Ugandans will look for him and recognize his relevance.

That was an admission of guilt in itself that denotes that perhaps his time in the politics of the Democratic Party in particular and Uganda in general had come to an unexpected end.

He had thrown in the proverbial towel!. He is clever enough to know that his fate has been sealed.

Mao’s political deeds

But we need to cross examine how Mao has played his political cards in the most recent years to determine where it all went wrong.

Mao had been one of the most consistent members of the opposition who has opposed president Museveni for close to three decades.

He has contested for the Ugandan presidency and registered miserable percentage votes and knows how it feels.

He also tried his hands at forging an alliance with the then overhyped former Ugandan Prime Minister Hon Amama Mbabazi in the TDA in the run up to the 2016 election-but evaporated without any impact.

When TDA failed to takeoff, Mao ran back to DP and tried to consolidate himself as the party president but was faced with very hostile forces within the party.

He made mistakes of resorting to insults to address his detractors like Kampala mayor Erias Lukwago. This constant bickering has eventually resulted into a political disaster with almost the entire DP senior hierarchy deserting him.

But Mao should be blamed for failing to read the political temperature in the country today.

Almost every tom, dick and harry knows that this political season is largely dominated by political rookie Hon Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobiwine.

Mao knows and has witnessed that almost the entire country has embraced the candidature of Bobiwine (NUP). If half his brain was at work, he should have found a way of working a smart alliance with the Ugandan musician cum politician-for the critical sake of political survival and floating on the radar of Ugandan politics.

Instead of acknowledging the reality of the political waves in the country, Mao chose to ridicule and even malign Bobiwine’s pressure group, The People Power Movement.

During one of the talk shows, Mao made a statement which buried his chances of remaining relevant in the fast moving political times when he stated that ‘’pressure groups like People Power are like schools without center numbers. When it’s time for exams, they run to schools with center numbers’’.

Mao was trying to state the dominance and political advantage of the Democratic Party had over The People Power group. He was therefore naively saying that when election time arrives, The People Power Movement and its leader Bobiwine will have to run to the legally registered DP to gain access to the ballot paper.

While the statement had a lot of legal sense, it made no political sense at all.

Why?

Because while DP has the legal requirements to posture as a political heavy weight, it doesn’t enjoy the mass following that Bobiwine enjoys around the country.

With all that in perspective Mao should have been the one to lead his people to NUP and not the other way round.

He had overestimated his political weight –a mistake that precedes many arrogant leaders.

Now that he has lost over twelve MPs and thousands of members of the party to NUP, he has no choice but to either join them, which seems to be already late, or lie low like an envelope.

It’s high time someone reminds him that he is like a principal of a very big school with a center number but without students.

The End Of An Epoch

It’s obvious that his political career as an individual has literary come to an end. The only option is to seek the tentacles of another political force.

But is it feasible for him to join the president Museveni’s NRM? Not at all, because his twenty five year fight against Museveni will have been in vain. I don’t think that he can afford to join Museveni because he will vindicate those who considered him to be Museveni’s spy.

Does he posses the will to join forces with another political group within the opposition?

 Yes he can probably join the other political forces but they will have no impact given the fact that the same forces are not as powerful as the NUP group.

If Mao, for instance joins FDC, he will be running away from the proverbial frying pan to the fire itself.

Why? Because the FDC itself has run out of ideas and is looking for ways of floating in stormy waters.

The FDC are in a dilemma of having the monotonous candidature of Dr Kiiza Besigye who has already contested and lost five consecutive times. You don’t need rocket science to deduce that Besigye’s time in Ugandan politics is virtually over.

The FDC had tried to unveil Erias lukwago , but the lord mayor calculated and realized he has no chance of making any meaningful impact on the national scene and picked forms to contest as Kampala mayor again.

Mao can only resurrect as a king maker by supporting the emerging forces, but that possibility also point in the direction of NUP. But he blew that chance already.

Hon Betty Namboze actually told Mao that they (the defecting DP group) had left the small DP faction he leads to join more feasible forces that can beat Museveni at the polls.

This means that Mao should swallow his pride and lead that small faction and join another political force like that of Maj Gen (rtd) Mugisha Muntu’s Alliance for National Transformation party.

Muntu is moderate in his political actions and is a more welcome political option for some member of the NRM ruling party. Muntu therefore resonates very well with the moderates from the opposition and the ruling party.

But the problem with Muntu’s ANT is that while he has got a rational message of preparing a more peaceful transition from Museveni, he has got no political grounding with Ugandans.

Joining Muntu is as a wasted an effort as a man who runs and climbs a tree to evade a leopard-which is more seasoned mountain climber.

THE CONCLUSION

As of now, Norbert Mao can only resign to the fate of licking his political wounds. If he is not very careful, his political career is as good as done and dusted.

The reality is that Chairman Mao maybe a good orator, good at idioms with a language for press conferences but he lacks the magical political touch to propel him to the Ugandan presidency.

He should swallow his ride and contend with the fact that he can do well as a kingmaker than seeking to be a king himself.

Maybe time will be kind to him in the future.

The author Fred Daka Kamwada is political analyst and a blogger

kamwadafred@gmail.com

Mwenda Double jeopardy; The Rise and Fall of Andrew Mwenda the Erstwhile Fighter For Social Justice Now Turned Total Sycophant

 

Mwenda Double jeopardy; The Rise and Fall of Andrew Mwenda the Erstwhile Fighter For Social Justice Now Turned Total Sycophant

Last week Andrew Mwenda stormed the offices of the freshly unveiled National Unity Party (NUP) and declared his intentions to contest against party president Hon Robert kyagulanyi.

Although this move was considered a prank by serious observers, it also   demonstrates that perhaps the motor-mouthed journalist misses opposition politics which made him the biggest brand in the country.

Mwenda has been a bitter critic of the People Power Movement (a pressure group that metamorphosed into the National Unity Party) and considers them intolerant, uncouth, primitive and probably worse than Museveni.

He considers them (PP) a terrorist group that has hallmarks of radical group similar to that of the Libyan rebel forces known as the Misratta brigade that participated in the overthrow and eventual death of Libyan despot Col Muamar Ghadafi.

So for Andrew Mwenda to visit the offices of ‘the Misratta brigade’ was indeed historic.

He later posted a very friendly post in which he said that he found them (NUP) more tolerant, and accommodative than he had expected. He also promised to contest against Bobiwine with the hope of defeating him at the party’s delegate’s conference. Looking at him speak was like watching Mr. Bean, the comedy man.

MWENDA OF THE PAST

All indications are that Mwenda misses the aura and the believability he used to enjoy when he was still associated with fighting for social justice.

Although he was a mere journalist, Mwenda made his name by opposing most of the injustices occasioned by president Museveni’s regime.

While journalism presupposes objectivity, fairness and giving all sides the chance to give their opinions about a given issue, Mwenda had deliberately made it clear that he had an inclination for giving more traction and space to the opposition.

He had become the voice of the opposition in the media. He made his name by not only criticizing but also by literally abusing by president Museveni.

Case in point; when Col John Garang perished in a helicopter crash, Mwenda accused president Museveni for causing the death of the SPLA leader. He went on to call Museveni a villager who had failed to govern the country.

He was incarcerated for a few days before he went back to his radio program on K-fm radio and writing in the daily.

Later on Mwenda quit the newspaper basing on the reason that it was no longer an objective vehicle for fighting social injustice in the country because the owner, the Agha khan, was in bed with president Museveni.

He promptly started his own media house, The Independent Magazine in which he continued his attacks against the NRM regime, drawing attention to the nepotism that was being practiced by president Museveni by mentioning all his relatives working for government.

OFF TO KIGALI

For reasons not known immediately, Mwenda started doing public relations for the Rwanda government

His job in kigali was to do propaganda that would project rosy growth figures and ‘wonderful’ economic growth statistics which made Rwanda ‘the shining star’ in the region. The project initially worked because everyone started believing in Rwanda and quoting it as the benchmark for better governance, sound polices etal.

Mwenda also resurrected the Kisangani battles that had been fought in 1999-2003 between the UPDF and RDF by focusing more on the battles where UPDF was beaten badly by RDF.

He had totally sacrificed his mother country for the few pieces of silver from Kigali.  

Soon, the cold war erupted between two erstwhile countries got to a breaking point.

Trust vintage Mwenda, for he was the man who brokered the deal to reconcile presidents Paul Kagame and Yoweri Museveni. We have been reliably informed that Mwenda made dollars and pounds from that deal to reconcile the two leaders.

But the contradiction of all is that both leaders have failed to fully reconcile, to-date- Rwanda has still not opened its borders with Uganda to-date.

It’s believed that although the leaders of both countries loathed each other so much, they were also not ready to get to full-scale war against each other.

 Mwenda has however always insisted that he cannot rule out that one day these countries will fight each other-notwithstanding the cover up diplomacy.

TIES WITH KAMPALA

Interestingly while Mwenda was working for Kigali, the reality was that he had very close ties with almost the entire power brokers in Kampala.

For instance he has very strong friendship with first son Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and enjoys comradely bond with Museveni’s brother Gen Salim Saleh.

He  is also in a an enviable position of being in talking terms with almost all the top UPDF generals both in government and those who quit and are in opposition politics in the country.  

Recently, a few years ago, it was rumored that Mwenda had been sacked by the Kigali establishment. But he immediately found vacancy at state house Nakasero, where he is known to be one of the top informal advisors for president Museveni, a feat that makes him the only journalist who has worked for two states that are hostile to each other.

ASSOCIATION WITH MAFIA

But working closely with the Ugandan state has come at a cost. Today Mwenda is associated with the mafia group that runs errands for the Ugandan president around state house.

Although he holds no official position in government he wields a lot of influence in the corridors of power. He can influence the deployment, appointment and sacking of public officials, influence policy and can influence or tilt decisions made by the president.

 All these machinations and contacts have made Mwenda one of the richest journalists in Uganda.

The Paranoia Of Losing It All

But Mwenda seems to suffer from the same disease that affects most Ugandans who have amassed a lot of wealth during Museveni’s 34 year reign--the paranoia of losing it all.

Although they made the wealth through Museveni, they also find Museveni’s continued stay in power a big risk to their wealth.

Although Museveni has guaranteed peace and stability for the last three decades, his continued stay is becoming more of a liability than an asset for the wealthy class. The trends in world politics have demonstrated that regimes in third world countries cannot guarantee stability without sanitizing the politics.

In Uganda the agitation for regime change has grown to a level where it cannot be ignored because Museveni has failed to guarantee peaceful transfer of power amidst agitation for him to handover to another leader.

There are fears that the forces of change might violently sweep Museveni of power and endanger the stability of the country like it was with Sudan president Omar Bashir, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, in Libya with Col Muamar Ghadafi and many other leaders who had failed to create peaceful transition power. In such situations the masses have risen up and dethroned their intransigent leaders.

President Museveni’s failure to undertake a peace transfer of power has put him in the spotlight as one of the leaders to face the same fate like the aforementioned leaders.

Interestingly, Mwenda chose to work with Kampala at a time when president Museveni had lost the moral authority and respect after amending the constitution two times (lifting the term and age limits).

That has come with money and power, but attracted negative fame for him (M9).

He is no longer believable and lacks the moral authority to direct debate like he used to do in the past when he was inclined to the fight against social injustice.

That has put him in a catch twenty two situation. He is enjoying money and fraternizing with powerful members of the regime but lacks the believability of the society.

In fact, today Mwenda is considered a serious member of the mafia group that is fleecing state resources. His last mention in the media was when he was involved in withdrawing billions of shillings from bank of Uganda.

The Mwenda who was a mere journalist is now in a position where he cannot influence debate, cannot be trusted as a journalist and cannot join the forces of change.

CONCLUSION

It’s a pity that Mwenda has reached a point where he can only make pranks about national issues. His comical visit at the NUP offices have not only demonstrated that he is indeed a lost brand but have also proved that he no longer takes himself seriously.

Instead of making an objective analysis about the fate of NUP he chose to go and make a mockery of himself!

It’s about time we ran a story narrating the rise and fall of the once great Andrew Mwenda, the man who used to talk and move the airwaves and leave Ugandans in awe about his intellect.

Today he is widely regarded as the one of the biggest sycophants for the regime he used to criticize so much. It’s totally uncertain whether Mwenda will ever rise again.

What a waste of brain power!

The author Fred Daka Kamwada is journalist and a blogger

Chat him up on; Kamwadafred@gmail.com

 

Are the 2021 Elections Already Rigged?; President Yoweri Museveni Has Resorted To Milton Obote’s Gerrymandering Tricks Of 1980

Are the 2021 Elections Already Rigged?; President Yoweri Museveni Has Resorted To Milton Obote’s Gerrymandering Tricks Of 1980

On Thursday 29^th July 2020, the Ugandan parliament passed a resolution that led to the creation of 46 newly created constituencies. The net effect was that the parliament will have 46 more members of parliament, making it a whooping 526 mps in the house!

The approval in the plenary session chaired by Speaker Rebecca Kadaga followed a motion by the Minister for Local Government, Raphael Magezi in which he said that the counties are created basing on a population quarter of 150,000, means of communication, level of economy, wishes of the people and others.

The creation of more counties was also premised on the argument of effective representation, but the timing itself, in a campaign period make it look like an election strategy to win the 2021 elections.

Given the fact that almost 85% of the created constituencies are NRM strongholds, this strategy fits in the category of a mischievous political trick called Gerrymandering.

Be critical enough to note there was no mention of the same in opposition hotspots like Kasese , Arua , Gulu, kampala etc.

 

Instead there was prominence in NRM strongholds of western Uganda where you have mention of Ruhaama, Ruhinda ,Rwampara , Bugangaizi , , Buhweju,Kiboga Mitooma, kagadi etc and many others which will obviously add numbers to NRM in parliament.

 

History repeats itself

Interestingly, when Obote was strategizing to win the 1980 elections, he used the same gerrymandering tricks.

Candidate Obote smartly identified all the UPC strongholds and divided them into new constituencies.

For instance he divided the strongest UPC Strongholds of Opac district into Opac north, Opac south, Opac west and Opac east. He went on to do the same in most of eastern and northern Uganda which were all UPC strongholds.

This gerrymandering gave Obote an immediate advantage in the 1980 elections..

Obote was also smart enough NOT TO make the mistake of dividing areas opposed to UPC and much more aligned to DP like Mpigi district which remained big but with just one member of parliament.

One important aspect about the 1980 elections, and which is not talked about these days, is that it was contested in a parliamentary format which prescribes that the party that wins more seats in the form of members of parliament makes government.

Due to this gerrymandering exercise it meant that UPC already had 17 unopposed seats even before vote was cast. This clearly shows that UPC was bound to win the elections, notwithstanding the DP dominance in Buganda.

The problem (that led to insinuations of rigging) was that the army of the time was more aligned to UPC and was central in making a lot of human rights violations that undermined Obote’s victory.

The partisan UNLA army, committed crimes of torture and killed most of the opponents of the UPC.

It these violations that made the 1980 elections look like rigged elections. In fact the UNLA army made Obote himself look like one of the worst killers, yet there is a lot of evidence to show that he wasn’t.

For instance, if you want to find out Obote’s track record, you look at how he handled the political personalities who had opposed him in the 60s.

In fact even the man, who had tried to assassinate him at Lugogo, was simply arrested and jailed at Luzira prison. I think I am digressing because the subject was gerrymandering and not Obote’s human rights record.

BUT THE DIGRESSING WAS CONTEXTUAL.

I was simply saying that politically speaking, the landscape of the 1980 favored UPC to win those elections.

But since history has mostly been written by the victims and losers of the 1980 elections, they combined the atrocities committed by the army and combined them with the political fate of the time.

Politically speaking Obote was in a better shape than all the other contestants and would have won those particular elections, anyway-notwithstanding his unpopularity in Buganda.

When BBC stringer Robin white interviewed the then army chief of staff Maj gen David Oyite (the clip is there on YouTube) he asked him about the fate of the elections, he simply told him (Robin White) to go and ask same question to the common wealth observers who had come to cover those elections.

The unanimous view of the commonwealth observers was that the elections had been won by UPC, notwithstanding the unfairness that preceded them.

So when the Ugandan parliament sat and created another 46 constituencies, it was a case of history repeating itself.

Gerrymandering was a waste of time

 Just like it was with UPC dominating all the newly created counties, the NRM is dominant in all the newly created counties and will therefore boosted by an additional number of members of parliament to continue endorsing their views in the august house.

The only difference is that this time we are conducting elections basing on a presidential system contrary to 1980 when it was done under a parliamentary system where it was deemed vital to have more MPs in the house.

But while the NRM strategists might be boasting about their gerrymandering tricks, we need to remind them that they are not enough to win the 2021 elections. Why?

One;, because this is a presidential system where an election is conducted on a one man, one vote basis. This means that the person who gathers more aggregate votes throughout the country can become the next resident of Uganda.

The gerrymandering would have been very effective in a parliamentary system because of the big number of assured members of parliament that arose from the creation of new counties.

Secondly, this also means that someone can have fewer MPs in the august house and still become president. So the gerrymandering was advantageous in as far as dominating parliament is concerned and not in influencing the aggregate outcome of the presidential elections.

So when you think deeper, you find that since NRM was already dominant in the parliament, then the gerrymandering was simply a waste of time in as far as influencing the outcome of the presidential elections is concerned because they already had control of the august house.

And the economic consequence is that the cost of expenditure on parliament alone has risen to over Shs 500 billion per annum.

The way forward

The creation of more counties simply means that the house will have over 600 members of parliament. This obviously will result into calls for the creation of another forum for effective representation.

 This will simply mean that we have two houses, the lower and upper house akin to the senate and the congress to create room for more effective debate.

Otherwise I shudder to think that the speaker can identify the eloquent legislators in a house of over 560 mps, it looks like a complete circus.

If the NRM doesn't make some of these corrections , especially in regard to reducing the cost of public expenditure , then it will be incumbent on the next govt to do so.

The author Fred Daka Kamwada is a journalist, socio-political analyst and a blogger

kamwadafred@gmail.com