The Seven Significant Political Events That Will Rock Uganda
In 2015;
Gen Sejjusa Will Be Court-martialed, Governor Tumusime
Mutebile Will Be Sacked, Exiled colonels Samson Mande and Kyakabale Will return while Kiiza Besigye will
be Announced as Sole Candidate for the Opposition
At last 2014, a year that gave us political drama is behind
us. But it was not short on some
significant political happenings like the purging of former Ugandan Prime
Minister, Hon Amama Mbabazi, the return from exile of renegade UPDF General
David Sejjusa Tinyefunza and the widely contested constitutional amendments of
the NRM party.
But According to our assessment, 2015 will certainly be more
explosive than 2014. We foresee the following political incidents to take
place;
1; Appointment of the
chief justice
After playing hide and seek for a very long time regarding the
issue of appointing the chief justice, this year president Yoweri Museveni is expected
to relent and appoint the CJ.
This projection is based on the fact that the preceding political
events ( including so many constitutional amendments and a national election ) will
necessitate that the judiciary gets fully constituted. With the 2016 elections
just knocking so hard on the door it will certainly look like a shame if we end
2015 without a chief justice.
2; Exiled Colonels Samson
Mande And Anrthony Kyakabale Will Return
IN 2015 president Yoweri Museveni is expected to make it a
year of rehabilitating and reconciling with his bush war colleagues, who fell
out with him in the past. And on this accord government is expected to extend a
reconciling hand to exiled colonels Samson Mande and Anthony Kyakabale who are
holed up in Scandinavian countries.
This projection is based on the fact president Museveni seeks
to make a smooth hustle-free presidential campaign for the 2016 elections. He is
therefore expected to make peace with all the previous political rivals of the
past. Having worked on the defection of
almost the entire UPC leadership some two years ago, the president will be hard
pressed to make peace with his former bush war colleagues.
On the look of it , Col Samson Mande And Col Anthony
Kyakabale’s cases have gradually weakened compared to the ones committed by Gen
David Sejjusa who openly declared war on the Ugandan government. We already
have rumors that some agents of the state are having strong contacts with the
exiled colonels.
Ironically , at one time col kyakabale’s family tried to coordinate
his return with the then coordinator of intelligence services gen David Tinyefunza.
But the talks collapsed due to issues to do with money and ego between the two
parties.
We have been told that ‘Mzee’ is determined to
make his 2016 campaigns year and a continued reign a very peaceful blemish-free
era.
3; Governor Tumusime
Mutebile Will Be Replaced
Word from an informed source have told us that the current governor
of bank of Uganda, Mr. Tumusime Mutebile is about to be replaced. The source told us that the governor angered
the president with his public confessions he made last year asserting that the
president forced him into the release of extremely huge sums of money for the 2011
elections that resulted into a very bad inflation.
Governor Mutebile also made a public revelation accusing president
Museveni of wasting money on military jets.
And we have been told that the president had already got agitated
by governor Mutebile’s performance in the previous years. Mutebile realized
that he was no longer the darling of the president and started making politically
charged statements to forestall his sacking (by making politically charged statements
appear as a pretext for his sacking)
But we have been told that his sacking letter was drafted a
long time ago and only awaits dispatchment.
This is based on the fact that it would practically be illogical
to go into an election (2016) with a governor who will not release funds for
the campaigns.
4; Col Besigye Will Be Elected Sole Candidate For Opposition
Despite of having stepped down as chairman of the Forum For
Democratic Change ( and paved way for Gen Mugisha Muntu to become president of
the party), the political winds are blowing in his(Besigye) favor to bounce
back as the sole candidate for the opposition.
This will counter balance the already sold-out sole
candidature of NRM’S Museveni.
Besigye is helped by the fact that despite of having lost in
the three previous elections (2001, 2006, and 2006) no single Ugandan has
emerged on the scene to challenge Museveni in the same fashion as he did .
With 2016, just appearing like tomorrow, the opposition doesn’t
seem to be preparing any other leader who will feature as the sole candidate apart
from kiiza Besigye.
5; Gen David Sejjusa
Tinyefunza Will Be Court-Martialed
Having spent two years in exile and returned in style ,
renegade UPDF Officer Gen David Sejjusa will certainly have his time in the
court martial this year for the seditious and treasonable remarks he made while
in exile.
We have been told that the UPDF high command has rejected
president Museveni’s alternative solution of ignoring the general, to deprive
him of the publicity that comes with the court sessions.
The president is hugely concerned that Sejjusa might turn
the court as a political platform to bash his government-the way nelson Mandela
used his court time to make landmark statements before he was sentenced to his
27 year jail term). The president therefore feels that it was the same thing (prosecution)
that made Kiiza Besigye popular by appearing to be a victim of persecution from
the state.
A senior officer told us that the army leadership believes that
president Museveni’s option is a political solution to an institutional issue
which requires adherence to principles. They also fear that it will set a bad
precedence for other officers if Gen Sejusa is not prosecuted.
And we have been told that the president restrained the army
from arresting Sejjusa immediately to allow him to commiserate with his family after
losing his dad , brother and sister during his two year exile. But we can authoritatively reveal that his (
Sejjusa’s) charge sheet is ready,
6; Gen Moses Ali ,Prof
Tarsis Kabwegyere And Henry Kajura Will Dropped From Cabinet
President Museveni Is also expected to make a big reshuffle
in this year of 2015 in which he is expected to drop some senior members of
cabinet. The three long serving members who are expected to be dropped are Gen
Moses Ali , Prof Tarsis Kabwegyere and Hon Henry kajura.
While Gen Moses Ali and Henry kajura are known to have
requested the president to retire, the issue of Prof Tarsis Kabwegyere’s dropping
from cabinet is arising out of ideological reasons.
Kabwegyere is said to be a known friend of the recently
sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi. And he is also remembered for having
remarked (when Hon Amama was handing over to Hon Ruhakana Rugunda as prime minister)
that he relishes the day when he will witness the peaceful handover from
president Museveni to another president. These remarks were surely an obvious
vote of no confidence in the continued stay of Museveni as president of Uganda.
7; Olara Otunu Will
Be Replaced As UPC President
2015 is also expected to witness sweeping changes emerge in
the Uganda people’s congress. Its current leader Mr Olara Ottunu is not expected
to remain the party president of the party that spearheaded Uganda’s
independence in 1962.
Of course we cannot speculate on who will replace Ottunu as
UPC party president , but there is a likelihood that Hon jimmy Akena might be
at the forefront of assuming leadership of the party that his father ( DR Apollo
Milton Obote )used to rule Uganda on two different occasions.
Conclusion
Of course there are some issues which have not been
highlighted which will rock Africa, with the most expected death of Zimbabwean president
Robert Mugabe ranking highly. You are free to also explore your expectations for
2015 on this blog.
Ends
Fred Kamwada-Kamwada Is A Senior Ugandan Journalist And Political
Commentator
