Mugisha Muntu, Bobiwine, Mao , Jpam To Form Super Coalition That Will Spark Off Mass Exodus Of Big Personalities From NRM by 2021

 Mugisha Muntu, Bobiwine,  Mao , Jpam To Form Super Coalition That Will Spark Off Mass Exodus Of Big Personalities From NRM by 2021

 

Hon Robert Kyagulanyi Now enjoys more international surport thanPresident  Museveni

The Ugandan political landscape might get more and more interesting as more political big wigs find new political addresses in the coming three years.

The recent bye-elections  in Kyadondo East , Bugiri , Jinja east and Arua municipality introduced a Ugandan pop musician Bobiwine as the political new kid on the block ,phasing out the four time presidential contestant Rtd Col Kiiza Besigye from the scene he has dominated for over two decades as the main opposition leader.

Bobiwine himself had no political ambitions from the onset, but was plunged in the deep end when the Kyadondo east seat fell vacant paving way for him to try out his luck at elective politics.

The massive support he got encouraged him to join elective politics where he amassed the highest vote-winning margin of all elected members of parliament.

He then got motivated to push his weight behind oppositions candidates in Jinja east, Bugiri , and Arua where he again managed to be the most influential political figure ushering himself into national politics as a prospective national leader.

Although Bobiwine himself never, (and still doesn’t regard himself ready for the presidential seat) , the countrywide calls for him to challenge president Museveni have reached fever pitch.

President Museveni himself has not helped matters of anointing Bobiwine as his opponent by unleashing terror on him through torture, jail and court trials.

The resultant effect has been the mass outcry from the international community which seems to have regarded Bobiwine as a serious presidential contender. Bobiwine has since graced all the international media outlets. 

He, unlike Dr Kiiza Besigye, has addressed a news conference in the American capital which was covered by all media outlets like CNN, BBC, AL Jazeera etc.

And that is not all; he was in company of internationally renowned lawyer Robert Amsterdam, who is known to have influenced regime change in Thailand, Philippines and Venezuela. 

Mr amsterdam is known to have represented russian disident Mikhail Khordorkovsky, former CEO of Yukos Group in a suit which that wasn't liked by president Vladmir Putin.

Truth is , a man who fights Putin cannot be taken lightly. 

Within a short time, the Bobiwine brand has become one of the biggest political factors in the country today. With the backing of the Ugandan masses and the unwavering support of the international community, it’s safe to suggest that Bobiwine can easily beat president Museveni in an election. 

The Bobiwine wine phenomenon having become such a strong political factor in the country has not left other political forces intact. The first casualty has been the Forum For Democratic Change which has been torn apart. There is an obvious exodus of members who are in the process of defecting from FDC to join the people power movement.

 Now that their former Forum For Democratic Change party president Rtd major General Gregory Mugisha Muntu has quit the party, it’s just a matter of time before others follow suit.

What is most likely to happen is as interesting but also nerve wrecking as penalties in the world cup final.  It’s obvious that Mugisha Muntu’s desertion from FDC was more motivated by Bobiwine’s people power Movement which has swept the entire country rather than having lost the FDC party presidency.

Of course Muntu is no fool to leave a party that is likely to get to power and jump into a speculated political dispensation. The recent events have proved to him that people power phenomenon is only going to grow stronger.

He knows that the time for FDC and its perennial party flag bearer Dr Kiiza Besigye and that of Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni is up. Ugandans are only going to embrace a new political dispensation. The reality of the moment shows that FDC seems to have stagnated into another NRM-B rather than a formidable political alternative.

As things stand, it’s inevitable that the political forces within the opposition are not going to form a new political party as such- because it will surely be crushed by the Museveni military and money machinery.

But they are going to form some sort of silent but very cohesive coalition which will embrace all the respectable political forces in the country to upstage president Museveni in 2021.

The Alternatives

There is the unanimous view that president Museveni is no longer the political force he was five to ten years ago. Without money and the military Museveni cannot cling on for another month in power.

Therefore the question is who will take over when Museveni evaporates from power?. It’s obvious that the NRM is not the cohesive party that it pretends to be. This means that it cannot produce another leader for this country.

These are facts that most erudite Ugandans know but are shy not to talk about. Amidst all this, you should expect some notable political happenings to take place.

For instance, the Democratic Party still commands a huge following in the country. Its leader chairman Norbert Mao is obviously going to be integral in the next coalition.

The coalition will also have the return of john Patrick Amama Mbabazi as another player in the mix.

Then you will have Mugisha Muntu in the wings also dictating play while Bobiwine will mobilize the masses into one of the biggest political crusade in the country.

This will have a domino effect of affecting NRM as many senior members of the NRM are likely to defect to this coalition whose name will come close to 2021 elections.

What JPAM’s TDA failed to do in 2016 is most likely to be done by the next coalition.  This mass exodus will leave president Museveni as isolated as President Daniel Arap Moi was when he was pushed out of power mostly by his colleagues who had defected from KANU.

Then a tsunami of bigger proportions will sweep the country. 

The reason why this 2021 coalition looks very optimistic with realistic chances of capturing power stems from the fact that unlike in the past, this time there is overwhelming support from the international community and the masses are more than determined to kick Museveni out of power.

In Our Next Episode We Shall Discuss The Names Of Big Personalities Expected To Defect From The Museveni Camp

Fred Daka Kamwada Is A Blogger , Journalist And Prospective Book Author

kamwadafred@gmail.com

President Museveni Needs To (1) Lower Power Tariffs ,(2) Release All Political Prisoners (3) Review Oppressive taxes, (4) , reduce on the cost of public administration, (4) to Resonate Again with Ugandans

President Museveni Needs To (1) Lower Power Tariffs ,(2) Release All Political Prisoners (3) Review Oppressive taxes, (4) , reduce on the cost of public administration, (4) to Resonate Again with Ugandans 

Its not too late for president Museveni to rehabilitate his tainted regime and regain his lost appeal with Ugandans

when Col Muamar Ghadafi was on the verge of losing power ,he made a speech almosty on a daily basis.
likewise his friend in arms , our very own Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni has addressed the nation more often than he ever did in the entire three decade reign.

It’s also evident that some of his statements are not only incoherent but they also don’t rhyme very well with the reality on the ground.

 These days he uncharacteristically deviates into trivialities- like how his children will never search for jobs because he has managed to work for his them( as if its not obvious already), blah, blah.

Some of us, who have grown up watching rosy speeches of the Ugandan president are getting a raw deal. We were used to super speeches lazed with erudite analogies, statistics and figures about events.

Today we no longer see the scholarly Museveni we were used to. 

 All this must be traced to aftermath of the Arua debacle that led to the arrest, torture and unjustified trial of over a dozen members of parliament.

Consequently ,One of the tortured Mps, Bobiewine has  emerged as a presidential contender (by virtue of the mass following he commands) and has now featured on all the known international media outlets, sending president Museveni and his crew into unbelievable panic.

The European Union, the British parliament and the American congress has rose up to condemn the brutality of the Ugandan leader.

It’s clear that the president has become jittery and seems to have more sleepless nights than he ever had in his entire lifetime!.

Losing base with the international community seems to have hit him so hard.

In one of his speeches he lambasted his public relations team thus;

" I Yoweri Museveni son of Kaguta, General of the NRA requiring polishing? I can do it myself. Those PR agencies and sijui perceptions? For us we deal with reality" [emphasis added].

The jibe was reportedly intended to rubbish most of his aides who have failed to engage the Bobiwine wave of critics.

but one of the most trusted museveni strategists Andrew Mwenda reportedly hit back to the Ugandan president by asserting that , ‘’the Museveni brand is very difficult to market at the moment’’

 

Interestingly , the same Andrew Mwenda was one of the few spin doctors who had pledged uncompromising loyalty to the Ugandan president by clearly stating that ‘’he would rather hobnob with dictator Museveni than join Bobiwine’s Misratta brigade.’’ 

Mwenda and most of Museveni’s allies seem to smell the end of the regime which promised so much, delivered some success, but is now on backward trail.

But some of us who have been around long enough and prefer a peaceful country have not given up on Museveni.

 We believe that he can redeem himself and win back the lost glory if he embarks on the following;

1; Release All Political Prisoners

Since the advent of the Bobiwine riots, hundreds of youths were locked up and are languishing in Luzira maximum prison.

 I however think that the president can win some political mileage if he exercises his powers and orders the unconditional release of all political prisoners.

The perfect timing for this can be Independence Day which is just around the corner on 9^th October.

I know of counter arguments that the president can only exercise his right for prerogative of mercy only if someone has been convicted.

 I don’t think it’s a convincing argument at all. Just get on with it, forgive your fellow Ugandans and wait for the reaction from your countrymen.

It will also appear smart if the president disassociates rather than justify the brutality of the security agencies.

It was not good that he justified the torture and incarceration of the Arua Mps. It cost him the entire international community and gave the likes of Amsterdam the justification to campaign against the NRM leader. 

2; Revise The Oppressive Taxes 

Forget the politics; Ugandans have become more hostile to president Museveni because of the harsh economic environment.

If the president offers to, for instance, look at the taxes Ugandans are paying and makes a deliberate attempt to reduce them by some percentage then he will win back a lot of hearts that he had lost.

We have seen the new Liberian president George Weah scrap taxes on a wide range of products to save his poor countrymen from poverty.

President Museveni forgets that he has become a hate figure simply because he preaches anti-poverty slogans but imposes policies (taxes) which enhance poverty within the population.

If you, for instance, reduce taxes on fuel, it will have the trickledown effect of making everything cheap.

Consequently the ghosts of inflation will come down and the cost of making business will be reduced.

But Uganda has the highest cost of making business in the region because of of such hostile taxes. 

3; Reduce Power Tariffs 

One of the most frustrating issues in this country has been the high rate of power tariffs.

Interestingly, President Museveni has spent so much on power generation and boasts about having surplus power.

 But he fails to explain why the power tariffs are still very high.

Am actually told that Uganda exports most of its electricity to Kenya and Rwanda where the power tariffs are even cheaper! Can you imagine? Who is fooling who here?

4; Reduce On The Cost Of Public Expenditure

One of the issues that undermines the credibility and justified longevity of president Museveni’s regime is the high cost of public expenditure.

If the president can reduce on the size of his monstrous cabinet, over size parliament and other sectors of government, Ugandans will revise their hatred for his regime.

The recent exercise where some authorities were rejoined with ministries was a step in the right direction , but it was simply not enough.

If he puts his heart to it (reducing the COP) he can save the country a lot of money which is being wasted on a bloated government.

Some of us ( am from the Third Force by the way) believe a smaller government that is sensitive to service of the citizenry is far better than a bloated government that simply siphons state resources.

By the way, this is not rocket science, Sudanese president Omary El Bashir has just reduced on his cabinet to mitigate a worsening economy.

5; Regional Balancing In Job Allocation

one of the most less talked about but more apparent burning issues in this country has  been tribalism.

So if the president makes a honest remark and says ‘’enough is enough, it’s true that Ugandans from western Uganda are dominating all the top jobs. Let’s try to accommodate our brothers from other parts of the country”

He can then follow up on this honest admission by appointing more Easterners, Northerners in different high profile jobs.

Oh, I know he is not in position to do this. Am actually dreaming aloud!

But it can be one of the most appealing statements he has ever made to Ugandans in his entire period in power.

Anyone who says there is no tribalism, sectarianism and nepotism in this country is a hypocrite trying to sweep dead rats under the carpet. They will eventually smell my dear!.

But the president can alleviate it by becoming more deliberate and allowing practical competition for juicy positions in government.

 He can tentatively, for instance, appoint a vice president from northern Uganda and a prime minister from the east.

This move alone can simply kill off the opposition and cool down the social tension in the country.

Of course there is a lot more that needs to be done for president Museveni to redeem his regime. But these five can make a huge difference in rehabilitating the Museveni brand.

If President Museveni realizes that humility and sincere engagement with the citizenry is more critical than brutal force, he will make his 50 year dream in power a reality.

Anything other than that is simply leading him to a waterloo or cul de sac of some sort.  

The author, Fred Daka Kamwada is a Ugandan blogger, journalist and prospective book author. 

Chat with him on kamwadafred@gmail.com