WHY PEOPLE POWER IS THE WAY TO GO; Political Parties, Curses Or Good Speeches Will Not Depose president Museveni From Power

WHY PEOPLE POWER IS THE WAY TO GO;  Political Parties, Curses Or Good Speeches Will Not Depose president Museveni From Power

Bobiwine's people power strategy is more likely to eject Museveni from power 

After making three (consecutive) decades in power, president Museveni seems to be facing the biggest dilemma of his life;1; how to retain himself in power without being brutal, or  2;when and how to handover to another person who is agreeable to the entire country without antagonizing the status quo.

His continued grip on power has, however, invited all sorts of responses from Ugandans who are desperate for change.  Today almost all Ugandans who are not benefiting directly from president museveni’s patronage system are praying, cursing and wishing for the day he will either die or leave power, either, peacefully or otherwise.

As you read this, another desperate section of Ugandans are either registering new political parties or in the process of doing so.

Former Forum For Democratic Change party president Rtd Maj Gen Gregory Mugisha Muntu has wasted no time in this regard by announcing a new political party. Muntu has always prophesied that he foresees a possibility of power vacuum in the country because he foresees Museveni’s downfall much sooner rather than later. 

If you are not careful, you would be misled into believing that president Museveni’s government is about to collapse either today or in the next 48 hours!

This optimism about Museveni’s downfall is, to say the least, based more on wishful thinking than scientific diagnosis because there is no serious political or military threat faced by Museveni at the moment. It’s called blind faith.

Interestingly, this optimism for Museveni’s downfall is wide spread around the country.

But wait a minute!

Of course Museveni is not in any way naturally insulated from a downfall of some sort. But it must be based on a momentum built to eject him from power.  Something real (militarily) or political (a solid coalition) must be shifting gears towards achieving that objective. 

HOW DO REGIMES COLLAPSE?

History is abundant with lessons that dictatorial regimes don’t simply collapse because of being unpopular. They even don’t collapse simply because a despotic leader has killed his own people. Not even poor polices can evoke regime change.  It takes more than all that.

In a banana republic like ours here, you need to be very lucky to witness a regime change that is not violent-i mean war-driven. That is why the notion of engaging in defiance seems to be the most popular among some sections of Uganda’s political class.  But having been challenged militarily by over 30 rebel groups, president museveni seems to have insulated himself against armed rebellion.  

So what next ?

The only avenue for regime change which has not wholly been employed is a people power movement.

The good thing with people power is that it can easily be channeled legally through democratic means.

If an election is held and a given member of the opposition wins, then the people power will easily overwhelm the regime. But this people power cannot necessarily be achieved through political parties alone. You need a coalition of these different parties to merge at election time with a single candidate.

We have seen in Masaka that DP is still vibrant. But we have also seen that Jinja , Bugiri, Arua are all steaming with a strong appetite for regime change even without a political party as a rallying factor. This shows that everyone is needed ( as emphasized by Hon  Robert Kyagulanyi) 

African dictatorships cannot and have never been swept out through political parties, curses, prayers, good fiery speeches and wishful thinking parse! It has always been a combination of forces.

In fact I have not seen a single political party that has managed to uproot a regime on its own.

The Amin Example

President Idi Amin committed all sorts of mistakes which would ordinarily have taken his regime. But there was no political party to challenge him.

Those using cursing as a weapon for ejecting museveni must remember that Amin was cursed to many times but nothing came out of it.  

Even Wrong polices like the expulsion of the Indians from Uganda in 1972, the cutting of  ties with Israel and Britain in 1973, the brutal killing of the then chief justice Ben Kiwanuka, archbishop Janaan Luwum of the Anglican Church in 1977 and several other prominent people in the country did not cost him at all. 

How come Ugandans failed to mobilize to throw him out of power?

If you read Henry Chemba’s book , The Petals Of Blood, you will realize that by 1978 , Ugandans had lost hope of ever getting rid of Amin. This simply shows how difficult it is to uproot a dictatorship. 

In fact if Amin had not made a fool of himself by invading Tanzania, he would have died in power.

The fallacy that there were guerilla groups like Museveni’s Fronasa and Obote’s  kikosi malum is not convincing enough since they never held a single piece of territory on Ugandan soil! 

It took the resources of another country, Tanzania to uproot Amin. There was no input from political parties, no internal political mobilization from the Ugandans themselves during those dark days.

The Mobutu, Tsivangirai, Tsetsekedi, El Baradei Example 

Look at president Mobutu of Zaire and the way he bossed himself without any resistance from his countrymen. The late Etienne Tsetsekedi tried bambi , to do what Muntu is trying to do by making fiery speeches , promising change through political contestations etc. but he never succeeded in taking power from Mobutu.

Look at Hosni Mubarak and the way he managed to freeze the opposition. There was an opposition leader called El Baradei who had opposed Mubarak for very many years. But when the Arab spring swept Mubarak out of power, El Baradei was not anywhere near the corridors of power.

 Then there is the good example of Morgan Tsivangirai with his struggles against Zimbabwean despot Robert Mugabe which never yielded any dividends. Tsvangirai died without witnessing the end of Mugabe, who was later on pushed out by the military.

I don’t know whether it’s prudent to also bring in the heartbreaking example of Raila Odinga, who invested everything in wrestling power from the kikuyu in Kenya without success.  It’s the same fate that has befallen Rtd col Kiiza Besigye who has gone down the pecking order in the contestation for power in Uganda.

All those opposition leaders failed because they failed to marshal the people power to their advantage. It’s this people power that delivered regime change in Burkina Faso, when President Blaise Campaore tried to amend the constitution but was resisted by the masses. It’s the same people power that successfully drove Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Tunisian President Ben Ali out of power.

Political mobilization through parties can continue, but some of us feel that they will not deliver the desired change. Its people power that looks feasible at the moment.

In fact this is the major reason why Bobiwine has become a popular figure with the masses and the international community because he subscribes to a more viable strategy of regime change; people power. 

Fred Daka Kamwada is a blogger, journalist and prospective book author

Ends