WHY PEOPLE POWER IS THE WAY TO GO; Political Parties, Curses Or Good Speeches
Will Not Depose president Museveni From Power
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| Bobiwine's people power strategy is more likely to eject Museveni from power |
After making three (consecutive) decades in power, president
Museveni seems to be facing the biggest dilemma of his life;1; how to retain
himself in power without being brutal, or 2;when and how to handover to
another person who is agreeable to the entire country without antagonizing the
status quo.
His continued grip on power has, however, invited all sorts
of responses from Ugandans who are desperate for change. Today almost all Ugandans who are not benefiting
directly from president museveni’s patronage system are praying, cursing and
wishing for the day he will either die or leave power, either, peacefully or
otherwise.
As you read this, another desperate section of Ugandans are
either registering new political parties or in the process of doing so.
Former Forum For Democratic Change party president Rtd Maj
Gen Gregory Mugisha Muntu has wasted no time in this regard by announcing a new
political party. Muntu has always prophesied that he foresees a possibility of
power vacuum in the country because he foresees Museveni’s downfall much sooner
rather than later.
If you are not careful, you would be misled into believing
that president Museveni’s government is about to collapse either today or in
the next 48 hours!
This optimism about Museveni’s downfall is, to say the least,
based more on wishful thinking than scientific diagnosis because there is no
serious political or military threat faced by Museveni at the moment. It’s called
blind faith.
Interestingly, this optimism for Museveni’s downfall is wide
spread around the country.
But wait a minute!
Of course Museveni is not in any way naturally insulated
from a downfall of some sort. But it must be based on a momentum built to eject
him from power. Something real (militarily)
or political (a solid coalition) must be shifting gears towards achieving that
objective.
HOW DO REGIMES
COLLAPSE?
History is abundant with lessons that dictatorial regimes
don’t simply collapse because of being unpopular. They even don’t collapse
simply because a despotic leader has killed his own people. Not even poor
polices can evoke regime change. It takes more than all that.
In a banana republic like ours here, you need to be very
lucky to witness a regime change that is not violent-i mean war-driven. That is why the notion of engaging in defiance seems to be
the most popular among some sections of Uganda’s political class. But having been challenged militarily by over 30 rebel groups,
president museveni seems to have insulated himself against armed rebellion.
So what next ?
The only avenue for regime change which has not wholly been
employed is a people power movement.
The good thing with people power is that it can easily be channeled
legally through democratic means.
If an election is held and a given member of the opposition wins,
then the people power will easily overwhelm the regime. But this people power cannot necessarily be achieved through
political parties alone. You need a coalition of these different parties to
merge at election time with a single candidate.
We have seen in Masaka that DP is still vibrant. But we have
also seen that Jinja , Bugiri, Arua are all steaming with a strong appetite for
regime change even without a political party as a rallying factor. This shows
that everyone is needed ( as emphasized by Hon
Robert Kyagulanyi)
African dictatorships cannot and have never been swept out
through political parties, curses, prayers, good fiery speeches and wishful
thinking parse! It has always been a combination of forces.
In fact I have not seen a single political party that has
managed to uproot a regime on its own.
The Amin Example
President Idi Amin committed all sorts of mistakes which
would ordinarily have taken his regime. But there was no political party to challenge
him.
Those using cursing as a weapon for ejecting museveni must
remember that Amin was cursed to many times but nothing came out of it.
Even Wrong polices like the expulsion of the Indians from
Uganda in 1972, the cutting of ties with
Israel and Britain in 1973, the brutal killing of the then chief justice Ben
Kiwanuka, archbishop Janaan Luwum of the Anglican Church in 1977 and several other
prominent people in the country did not cost him at all.
How come Ugandans failed to mobilize to throw him out of
power?
If you read Henry Chemba’s book , The Petals Of Blood,
you will realize that by 1978 , Ugandans had lost hope of ever getting rid of
Amin. This simply shows how difficult it is to uproot a
dictatorship.
In fact if Amin had not made a fool of himself by invading
Tanzania, he would have died in power.
The fallacy that there were guerilla groups like Museveni’s
Fronasa and Obote’s kikosi malum is not convincing enough since they
never held a single piece of territory on Ugandan soil!
It took the resources of another country, Tanzania to uproot
Amin. There was no input from political parties, no internal political
mobilization from the Ugandans themselves during those dark days.
The Mobutu, Tsivangirai,
Tsetsekedi, El Baradei Example
Look at president Mobutu of Zaire and the way he bossed
himself without any resistance from his countrymen. The late Etienne Tsetsekedi
tried bambi , to do what Muntu is trying to do by making fiery speeches ,
promising change through political contestations etc. but he never succeeded in
taking power from Mobutu.
Look at Hosni Mubarak and the way he managed to freeze the
opposition. There was an opposition leader called El Baradei who had opposed
Mubarak for very many years. But when the Arab spring swept Mubarak out of
power, El Baradei was not anywhere near the corridors of power.
Then there is the good example of Morgan Tsivangirai
with his struggles against Zimbabwean despot Robert Mugabe which never yielded
any dividends. Tsvangirai died without witnessing the end of Mugabe, who was
later on pushed out by the military.
I don’t know whether it’s prudent to also bring in the
heartbreaking example of Raila Odinga, who invested everything in wrestling
power from the kikuyu in Kenya without success. It’s the same fate that
has befallen Rtd col Kiiza Besigye who has gone down the pecking order in the
contestation for power in Uganda.
All those opposition leaders failed because they failed to
marshal the people power to their advantage. It’s this people power that delivered regime change in
Burkina Faso, when President Blaise Campaore tried to amend the constitution
but was resisted by the masses. It’s the same people power that successfully
drove Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Tunisian President Ben Ali out of
power.
Political mobilization through parties can continue, but
some of us feel that they will not deliver the desired change. Its people power
that looks feasible at the moment.
In fact this is the major reason why Bobiwine has become a popular figure with the masses and the international community because he subscribes to a more viable strategy of regime change; people power.
Fred Daka Kamwada is a blogger,
journalist and prospective book author
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