The TDA Has A Bigger Challenge Than The Moshi Conference Which Was About Sharing Power

The TDA Has A Bigger Challenge Than The Moshi Conference Which Was About Sharing Power

• ·         Dr Besigye’s Political Future Depends On How He Will Behave Towards The TDA

• ·         The TDA Needs To Have A Superior Social Contract

• ·         Stakeholders Like Farmers, Workers, Industrialists , Traders Etc Should Have Been Included

The Transitional Democratic Alliance has so far suffered a stalemate in regard to either selecting or electing the flag bearer who will challenge president Museveni for the Ugandan presidency in fast approaching 2016 presidential elections. .

A number of postponements and compromises have been taken to make sure that the Ugandan political opposition comes up with a single candidate to run as the sole flag bearer for the TDA

But while some analysts have predicted doom for the alliance, others have compared it (TDA) with that of Moshi conference which was formed to take over the affairs in Uganda after the fall of President Amin Dada. 

It’s therefore absurd that some people have not thought about the magnitude of the uphill task and challenges faced by the TDA.

And having explored the task that the TDA is undertaking, there is no way you can compare it with the Moshi conference.

TDA Versus UNLF

The Moshi conference comprised of a group of Ugandans who congregated in the Tanzanian town of Moshi with the intention of forming a government after the fall of president Amin.

There task was simply to agree on the leadership of the post Amin Uganda in their umbrella alliance which they termed as the UNLF.

They never had any challenges regarding effecting regime change since most of it was done by the TPDF. Their duty was simply to assemble the dishes for food distribution rather than cooking it.

The sowing, harvesting and cooking had been done by the Tanzanians who invaded and eventually threw out the Amin regime.

While mention is made of the two Ugandan fighting factions of Kikosi Maluum And Fronasa , some good research shows both groups had no military capacity to defeat Amin on their own.

I therefore think that the role and contribution of the Ugandans who congregated in Moshi in 1979 to form the UNLF has largely been over hyped mostly because its success depended on the goodwill and oversight of the late president Julius Nyerere.

If the Tanzanians had backtracked on the mission to remove Gen Amin from power, the Moshi conference and its baby child UNLF would have been as irrelevant as a scratched and used airtime card.

In fact there are stories that president Nyerere was toying with the idea of only facilitating war not beyond the Tanzanian border.

In other words Nyerere was of the view that the TPDF was mandated to chase Amin troops from Tanzanian soil but not to overrun Kampala. The Tanzanian leader had thought that a total invasion of Uganda would have come with bigger costs.

Of course there are rumors that it was Paul Muwanga who convinced president Nyerere to change his mind and chase Amin completely out of Uganda in a total invasion.

And had president Nyerere taken that course of action, the Moshi conference would have been rendered as useless.

Therefore there is no reason why people should glorify the Moshi conference since it was not in practical control of effecting regime change in Uganda.    

On the other hand the TDA has the uphill task of pulling down a 30 year old NRM regime from power.

For such a coalition to succeed there must be compromises and sacrifices made.

It’s therefore unfair for people to expect the TDA to dispense the process in a very short time.

It’s therefore imperative that a lot of time is invested in the process of pulling everybody on board before all the modalities are ironed out.

Challenges And Frictions

I have read a very good commentary by Hon Norbert Mao in regard to the challenges faced by the TDA.

Of course he complained about the disruptive tendencies of his party rival larod mayor erias lukwago.

He also talked of how the Luwero group (In reference to the NRM figures Prof Gilbert Bukenya, Amama Mbabazi and Col Kiiza Besigye) are dominating the TDA process.

He also talked of the fact that in normal times he should have been the most appropriate choice and concedes that he cannot be the candidate because we live in abnormal times today.   

Mao ably narrated the schemes by the FDC group led by Hon Odonga Otto which has tried to disrupt the TDA process. But he was wise enough to say that he believes that all changes aside, the TDA is the only chance the opposition has to enforce regime change in 2016.

The Besigye Factor

The attitude of the FDC flag bearer Col Besigye towards the TDA has also been put into perspective.

He seems to be a wiling member, but some of his party members think that KB is more powerful than the TDA

But there is an obvious case here that the fate of Dr Kiiza Besigye’s political fortunes will hugely depend on the way he conducts himself between now and the February 2016 elections.

If he becomes hostile to the TDA alliance, then his political career will be finished once and for all?.

If he however plays the card of a willing facilitator of the process that will deliver the TDA candidate, then his political fortunes will live beyond 2016 and probably pave way for him to contest again in 2021.

GAME OF NUMBERS

The other bone of contention lies in the fact that the members of the TDA are very few to facilitate the success of such a big project. Since politics is a game of numbers, you need everyone on board.

Although the major political parties have been represented, the alliance should have comprised of different stakeholders from across the country.

The stakeholders should have comprised of civil society, interest groups like workers, district leaders , teachers, private sector, farmers, manufacturers, industrialists, investors and others who believe in the regime change project.

But narrowing down the decision making of the TDA to a few individuals from the political parties has watered down the momentum of the project. For instance why lockout Erias Lukwago?

WHERE IS THE SOCIAL CONTRACT

The other challenge is that most members of the TDA alliance have not paid attention to the most important aspect of the project; the manifesto.

What policies do they want to implement that can provide hope for Ugandans after unseating president Museveni?

It so happens that none of the candidates is paying attention to the fact that elections are about providing people with a social contract.

And it’s that social contract that determines the electability of a given candidate.

If a TDA candidate emerges with regime change as the only song, then the TDA will have lost the contest.

Of course there is a general feeling that Ugandans are simply yearning for change.  I don’t know whether I can argue with that perspective.

But I doubt whether it’s sustainable for the TDA leadership to fall prey to cliché of regime-change as the only motivation for contesting in the 2016 elections.

Ugandans need to hear of concrete programs that are superior to those of the NRM.

They need to be convinced that the regime change project is justified and well founded on solid reasons rather than sentimental reasons.

Ugandans deserve to see a bright future in whoever vies for the presidency. Nevertheless, the imperfections regarding the composition of the TDA aside, a leader of the coalition must emerge.

The Author Fred Daka Kamwada Is A Writer , Journalist And Blogger contact him on ;kamwadafred@yahoo.com