Col Kiiza Besigye Has A Realistic Chance Of Claiming The Ugandan Presidency In 2021 Rather Than 2016

Col Kiiza Besigye Has A Realistic Chance Of Claiming The Ugandan Presidency In 2021 Rather Than 2016

Early this week, Col Kiiza Besigye managed to win the right to carry the FDC flag in the 2016 presidential elections after a protracted six month campaign battle against his comrade Gen Mugisha Muntu.

Apart from the fact that the campaigns were the first of the kind in Ugandan politics –in as far as intra party democracy is concerned –they did not have the practical political impact on Ugandans because it was not about accessing actual power at state house Nakasero.

To many ordinary Ugandans, the FDC Nambole fete was widely regarded as a cosmetic event designed to create an avenue for Col Besigye to bounce back and challenge president Museveni for the fourth consecutive time.

The Realities

However, what are the realistic chances of the indefatigable Colonel dethroning president Museveni in the 2016 political contest? The answers to that question are as diverse as the word itself.

The pollsters have not given Col Kiiza Besigye a chance at all in all the opinions polls conducted so far.

It leaves KB as the usual underdog in the political contest against president Museveni.

But as you all know, in politics nothing is a given. Anything can happen and you find KB at the helm of the country.

But for a start, there are two schools of thought in as far as Besigye’s claim to the Ugandan presidency is concerned.

There is a school of thought that asserts that the colonel has in fact never lost any of the three elections he has contested against president Museveni!.

The proponents of this school of thought use the verdict of the Ugandan high court which almost reversed the 2001 and 2006 elections but were restrained by a mere technicality that asserted that the irregularities were not substantial enough to warrant a reversal of Museveni victory.

The same proponents of the same Besigye-always- wins-school of thought also quote the former coordinator of intelligence services Gen David Sejjusa who is widely quoted to have said that KB has always won the elections but was only rigged out by the state. Those ones believe that what is required to get an assured win is the vigilance of the citizenry to guard the votes for KB.

The second school of thought asserts that while it’s true that Besigye is a good rubble rouser with a crowd to behold, his popularity is not substantial enough to dethrone president Museveni.

This second school of thought believes that Besigye has failed to articulate a more promising future for Ugandans and rather concentrated on attacking the person of president Museveni.

The same school of thought feels that Besigye needs to first articulate a more vivid policy alternative that is superior enough to beat president Museveni’s manifesto and eventually become president of Uganda.

While it’s true that both schools of thought make a lot of sense, in some ways, there is also the issue of the timing of Besigye’s presidential ambitions and the new political dynamics that make it difficult for him to make it.

RENTED SUPPORT

While KB’s presidential cause is supported by a section of Ugandans, approaching almost 2.5 million, it’s fair to argue that those Ugandans have always done it out of hate for president Museveni rather than love or unconditional support for KB.

In fact analysts insist that Besigye has been riding on the support that voted for former presidential contender Hon Paul Kawanga Semogerere-and the same group would vote anyone who contests against president Museveni.

Given such a scenario, the proponents of that school of thought contend that Besigye has been thriving mostly on rented support rather than on the support of people who believe in him as someone who can deliver the regime change he normally agitates for.

His worst evil has been his chronic failure to build a strong grassroots power base to add on the rented support he has been enjoying over the years.

And given the political dynamics in the last five years, Besigye can no longer thrive on the rented support because it has been grossly eroded by events.

For instance the block vote that he used to enjoy from northern Ugandan has been diminished after the end of the civil war of Joseph Kony.

Today Besigye cannot be assured of the support that he used to generate because president Museveni has injected a lot of resources to rehabilitate northern Uganda.

The only area where Besigye can somehow stir some excitement is eastern Uganda-which we would rightly consider as a form of swing state.   

And his Gen Mugisha Muntu rightly managed to fault Besigye for not having made any attempts at building the structures that would add numbers to the cause of regime change.

The Transitional Democratic Alliance

Those dynamics aside, the emergence of the TDA also puts Besigye in a very complicated position because there are new political bulls in the kraal with intentions to contest for the presidency

Given the fact that Besigye has contested and lost three times, it’s unlikely that he will be a marketable brand in the TDA

There is, therefore, a strong possibility that KB will be requested to give chance to a new player to challenge president Museveni in the 2016 presidential election.

In fact evidence shows that the Museveni camp is more comfortable with a Besigye candidature than a new presidential contestant.

Why?

Because having defeated KB three consecutive times already, they {Museveni camp} seem to have the formular to use against him.

But with a new contender, let’s say like Hon Amama Mbabazi Or Prof Gilbert Bukenya , there is a fear that the population can make a rash decision and vote for a new kid on the block.

THE BEST OPTION

In fact, the best option for Besigye at the moment should have been to skip this 2016 election, to give chance to a new contender to challenge president Museveni.

Then after abstaining a bit, he can bounce back in 2021 as a contender.

By 2021, there is a high possibility that president Museveni will not be eligible to contest, since he will be barred by the age limit-unless he tampers with the constitution to lift the age limit that bars Ugandans above 75 years from contesting the presidency.

By 2021, KB will be in his 60s and strong enough to ride on the sympathy vote of Ugandans who have seen him suffer with the political struggle over the years.

The Abdoulaye Wade Precedence

If Besigye runs in 2021, he will not be as old as Senegal\s Abdoulaye Wade who contested and lost three times before he triumphed at the fourth time when he was around 80 years old.

Mr. Wade ran for President four times, beginning in 1978, before he was elected in 2000. Wade first ran for President in February 1978 against Senghor, taking 17.38% of the vote.

Subsequently he ran in the presidential elections of 1983 and 1988, taking second place each time, behind Senghor's successor Abdou Diouf.

By the time Abdoulaye Wade shot to power in 2000, he was already very old but he managed to win a re-election that saw him serve two terms. And there is a big chance that Besigye can emulate wade if he makes the right decision and abstains from the 2016 electoral contest, as he had indeed done earlier on.

Of course some political events may not be necessarily be imitated, but there is a good chance that Besigye can have a more realistic chance in 2021 than 2016.

By that time a Museveni candidature is unlikely to make sense to Ugandans the way it does in 2016 because the political environment will be more conducive for regime than today.

 The author Fred Kamwada-Kamwada is a Ugandan journalist and blogger. contact him on kamwadafred@gmail.com