The TDA Has A Bigger Challenge Than The Moshi Conference
Which Was About Sharing Power
- · Dr Besigye’s Political Future Depends On How He Will Behave Towards The TDA
- · The TDA Needs To Have A Superior Social Contract
- · Stakeholders Like Farmers, Workers, Industrialists , Traders Etc Should Have Been Included
The Transitional Democratic Alliance has so far suffered a stalemate
in regard to either selecting or electing the flag bearer who will challenge president
Museveni for the Ugandan presidency in fast approaching 2016 presidential elections. .
A number of postponements and compromises have been taken to
make sure that the Ugandan political opposition comes up with a single candidate
to run as the sole flag bearer for the TDA
But while some analysts have predicted doom for the alliance,
others have compared it (TDA) with that of Moshi conference which was formed to
take over the affairs in Uganda after the fall of President Amin Dada.
It’s therefore absurd that some people have not thought
about the magnitude of the uphill task and challenges faced by the TDA.
And having explored the task that the TDA is undertaking,
there is no way you can compare it with the Moshi conference.
TDA Versus UNLF
The Moshi conference comprised of a group of Ugandans who
congregated in the Tanzanian town of Moshi with the intention of forming a government
after the fall of president Amin.
There task was simply to agree on the leadership of the post
Amin Uganda in their umbrella alliance which they termed as the UNLF.
They never had any challenges regarding effecting regime
change since most of it was done by the TPDF. Their duty was simply to assemble
the dishes for food distribution rather than cooking it.
The sowing, harvesting and cooking had been done by the Tanzanians
who invaded and eventually threw out the Amin regime.
While mention is made of the two Ugandan fighting factions
of Kikosi Maluum And Fronasa , some good research shows both groups had no military
capacity to defeat Amin on their own.
I therefore think that the role and contribution of the Ugandans
who congregated in Moshi in 1979 to form the UNLF has largely been over hyped
mostly because its success depended on the goodwill and oversight of the late president
Julius Nyerere.
If the Tanzanians had backtracked on the mission to remove Gen
Amin from power, the Moshi conference and its baby child UNLF would have been
as irrelevant as a scratched and used airtime card.
In fact there are stories that president Nyerere was toying
with the idea of only facilitating war not beyond the Tanzanian border.
In other words Nyerere was of the view that the TPDF was
mandated to chase Amin troops from Tanzanian soil but not to overrun Kampala. The
Tanzanian leader had thought that a total invasion of Uganda would have come
with bigger costs.
Of course there are rumors that it was Paul Muwanga who convinced
president Nyerere to change his mind and chase Amin completely out of Uganda in
a total invasion.
And had president Nyerere taken that course of action, the Moshi
conference would have been rendered as useless.
Therefore there is no reason why people should glorify the Moshi
conference since it was not in practical control of effecting regime change in Uganda.
On the other hand the TDA has the uphill task of pulling
down a 30 year old NRM regime from power.
For such a coalition to succeed there must be compromises
and sacrifices made.
It’s therefore unfair for people to expect the TDA to
dispense the process in a very short time.
It’s therefore imperative that a lot of time is invested in
the process of pulling everybody on board before all the modalities are ironed
out.
Challenges And
Frictions
I have read a very good commentary by Hon Norbert Mao in
regard to the challenges faced by the TDA.
Of course he complained about the disruptive tendencies of
his party rival larod mayor erias lukwago.
He also talked of how the Luwero group (In reference to the
NRM figures Prof Gilbert Bukenya, Amama Mbabazi and Col Kiiza Besigye) are dominating
the TDA process.
He also talked of the fact that in normal times he should
have been the most appropriate choice and concedes that he cannot be the
candidate because we live in abnormal times today.
Mao ably narrated the schemes by the FDC group led by Hon Odonga
Otto which has tried to disrupt the TDA process. But he was wise enough to say
that he believes that all changes aside, the TDA is the only chance the opposition
has to enforce regime change in 2016.
The Besigye Factor
The attitude of the FDC flag bearer Col Besigye towards the TDA
has also been put into perspective.
He seems to be a wiling member, but some of his party
members think that KB is more powerful than the TDA
But there is an obvious case here that the fate of Dr Kiiza Besigye’s
political fortunes will hugely depend on the way he conducts himself between
now and the February 2016 elections.
If he becomes hostile to the TDA alliance, then his political
career will be finished once and for all?.
If he however plays the card of a willing facilitator of the
process that will deliver the TDA candidate, then his political fortunes will
live beyond 2016 and probably pave way for him to contest again in 2021.
GAME OF NUMBERS
The other bone of contention lies in the fact that the
members of the TDA are very few to facilitate the success of such a big
project. Since politics is a game of numbers, you need everyone on board.
Although the major political parties have been represented,
the alliance should have comprised of different stakeholders from across the
country.
The stakeholders should have comprised of civil society,
interest groups like workers, district leaders , teachers, private sector, farmers,
manufacturers, industrialists, investors and others who believe in the regime
change project.
But narrowing down the decision making of the TDA to a few
individuals from the political parties has watered down the momentum of the
project. For instance why lockout Erias Lukwago?
WHERE IS THE SOCIAL
CONTRACT
The other challenge is that most members of the TDA alliance
have not paid attention to the most important aspect of the project; the
manifesto.
What policies do they want to implement that can provide
hope for Ugandans after unseating president Museveni?
It so happens that none of the candidates is paying
attention to the fact that elections are about providing people with a social contract.
And it’s that social contract that determines the electability
of a given candidate.
If a TDA candidate emerges with regime change as the only song,
then the TDA will have lost the contest.
Of course there is a general feeling that Ugandans are
simply yearning for change. I don’t know
whether I can argue with that perspective.
But I doubt whether it’s sustainable for the TDA leadership
to fall prey to cliché of regime-change as the only motivation for contesting
in the 2016 elections.
Ugandans need to hear of concrete programs that are superior
to those of the NRM.
They need to be convinced that the regime change project is
justified and well founded on solid reasons rather than sentimental reasons.
Ugandans deserve to see a bright future in whoever vies for
the presidency. Nevertheless, the imperfections regarding the composition of
the TDA aside, a leader of the coalition must emerge.
The Author Fred Daka
Kamwada Is A Writer , Journalist And Blogger contact him on ;kamwadafred@yahoo.com
