The Contradictions And Paradoxes In The Uganda-Rwanda Cold War; Why A Full-Scale War Is Most Unlikely

The  Contradictions And Paradoxes In The Uganda-Rwanda Cold War; Why A Full-Scale War Is Most Unlikely 

Prussian General and military theorist Carl Von Clauswitz once said that war is a continuation of politics by other means. His philosophy which he wrote in his book , WAR , is an interesting read especially for countries that seek to get to war with each other. The current ice cold and somewhat hostile bickering between Rwanda and Uganda might see a continuation of politics by other means.  

This bickering has been one of the most talked about and written about subject in the region. Given the thirst for war in some sections of our society, quite a number of warmongering Ugandans are asking why the war has not taken off, as yet.

Although Uganda doesn’t seem to have the stomach for a full-scale war –(and we shall explain the ‘probable’ reasons why at the end of this article), Rwanda has already expressed eagerness for the kickoff of this game of death, whatever the costs associated notwithstanding.

The Genesis Of It All

You must have read a lot of literature about why the two respective leaders are not on on good terms)

The biggest paradox of all is that although both leaders seem to consider the actions of their governments’ hostile to each other, they still meet and speak and even shake hands!.

What they speak is always a public secret known only by themselves.

Less than a week ago, they (president Kagame and president Museveni) met in Luanda, the Angola capital.  Just two days later, the Ugandan security agencies arrested over 40 Rwandese nationals!

The arbitrary arrest of those 40-Rwandese nationals was almost an invitation for war since its a direct violation of what Kigali considers a hostile treatment of its nationals, an issue that forms part of their grievances against Kampala.

It’s also a contradiction is the sense that the Rwanda government had issued a travel warning to all its nationals not to set foot in Uganda.

So, how and why did these Rwandese enter a ‘hostile’ country that their country had already warned them about? Were they on a spy mission?

By the way the issue of espionage between the two countries is ridiculous given the fact that both countries have operated at a brotherly level for so long and know each other on an inside-out basis.

Rwanda, for instance knows what Museveni eats for breakfast, when he goes to sleep and vice-varsa , by virtue of the long time the leaders have spent with each other.

Therefore, there are no secrets to talk about and virtually nothing to spy about here.

Yet , the paradox is that both countries have invested a lot in spying about each other(the recent MTN saga is part of this collision of intelligence information)

BUT WHAT REALLY IS THE MATTER, AND WHAT CAUSED ALL THIS?

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The hostility between the two erstwhile close allies has been on and off( cold war style ) for the last two decades( since they literally kicked each other’s buts in Kisangani in 1999)

yet  interestingly the genesis of the fallout between the two countries is a debate similar to ‘the-chicken-and-the-egg, which-came’ first dilemma.

However, quite a number of theories explaining the fallout between the two bush war comrades have been advanced by different personalities.

President Paul kagame’s former close colleague ,Theogene Rudasingwa came close to revealing what the real cause of the conflict between the two former bush war colleagues emanates from when he wrote that when the then  vice president Kagame wanted to assume the presidency from president Pasteur Bizimungu, he (Kagame) sent him (Rudasingwa)to consult with president Museveni about the issue.

Rudasingwa writes that when president Museveni was told about Kagame’s desire to take over from President Bizimungu, he never seemed to enjoy the idea.

He (Museveni) reportedly questioned the whole idea (of a Kagame taking over) reasoning that a country like Rwanda had not yet healed from the 1994 genocide to warrant a leader from the Tutsi tribe (from which Kagame belongs) to takeover because it would scare or traumatize the Hutus-who actually form the majority.

President Museveni was of the view that president Bizimungu should have continued leading the country! Rudasingwa writes that when he reported back to Kigali , Paul was furious that his bush war colleague never approved him as a suitable person to rule his country.

It so happens that president Kagame made up his mind about his relationship with president Museveni.

And the relationship was to be as hostile as possible.

But paradoxically, it seems, on his part president Museveni forgot about it and thought it was business as usual.

 But Kagame felt betrayed to the core because he expected the Ugandan leader to just approve him as the most suited person to lead Rwanda. So when the two countries ventured into Congo to oust President Laurent Kabila, the results were always going to be disastrous.

While the Rwandese contingent regarded Uganda as a not so brotherly ally, the Ugandans were still basking in the brotherly comradeship they had shared since the Luwero bush wars.

There is a story about how Rwanda’s RDF troops took first option to attack Congo to oust president Laurent kabila and managed to capture most of the towns including Kisangani in 1999.

It’s said that Uganda, however, came in later and arrogantly ordered the RDF boys to vacate all the sensitive positions in Kisangani including the banks, the airport, the prisons, the radio and other sensitive administrative areas.

When word reached Kigali, the RDF reinforced its troops and deployed over 4000 troops to fight the Ugandans who were not more than 1500 -out numbering the Ugandans by almost three to one!

Unknown to Uganda, Kigali was more than ready for war and  managed to unleash terror on the UPDF.  By the time Kampala woke up , it had lost most of the senior commanders , tanks and a lot of military hardware to the RDF.

It is said that Kampala sent Gen James Kazini who retaliated and annihilated the RDF to genocidal proportions. That is why the war degenerated into what came to be known as Kisangani, one, two and three.

It was war at play; boys were dying on both sides.

And you have to recall that the Kisangani debacles almost coincide with the time vice president Kagame took-over as the president of Rwanda. when both forces attacked Zaire to oust president Mobutu in 1996, they enjoyed a very jolly relationship.

So Rudasingwa’s assertion that the fallout emerged from president Museveni's reluctance to accept kagame as president.

Interestingly as both Leaders continued to appear friendly in public in 2001, the Kampala establishment declared Rwanda a hostile country!

There was talk of each country sponsoring rebellion to oust the other. Rwanda was reportedly arming a rebel group reportedly known as the PRA, which was alleged to belong to Dr Kiiza Besigye.

While Uganda was accused of harboring Rwandese dissidents, whose rebel group name has only surfaced recently to be the Rwandese National Congress led by Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa

But while Kigali regards the RNC as a rebel /terrorist organization, its leaders regard it as a legitimate political party.

And to take you back briefly , remember by the time RDF fought with UPDF in the Congo , Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa and host of other members of RNC were still in bed with president Paul Kagame!

so what prompted the fight back then when the kayumbas were still in bed with President kagame.

  

 this exposes the fact that the issue of Uganda harboring dissidents doesn’t seem to add up. The reason for the fallout is much deeper and personal between the two leaders.

WAR OR NO WAR

The million dollar question is , will both countries go to war?

Ugandan journalist Andrew Mwenda, who is privileged to be in close proximity with both leaders, has on several occasions insisted that both countries are going to fight it out on the full-scale, come what may.

In his writings, Mwenda says that he has tried to bring both leaders together. At one time he was photographed with both leaders on Museveni’s farm in his home village of Rwakitura where it’s believed the Ugandan leader even donated some cattle to his counterpart.

But, as soon the situation seemed to normalize, Mwenda wrote about troop movement on both sides of the border.

  its also seems as if Uganda has been quietly mobilizing for war but it remains to be seen if its for the war against Rwanda or for precautionary reasons.

  Questions also arose as to why president Museveni bragged that ‘’if we mobilize you cannot survive’’ 

What or who was that person he was directing that war threat?

incidentally Uganda’s  intense recruitment drive and the increase in defense expenditure has been interpreted by Kigali as a serious intention of war.

WAR FOR STRATEGIC REASONS

Some elites claim that Rwanda is mad at Uganda because of strategic reasons like 

1; Uganda diverted the standard gauge railway from Kigali to juba, 

2; Ugandan authorities reportedly blocked electricity from Ethiopia to Kigali 

3; there is also the claim that Rwanda might interfere with the oil exploration in western Uganda through Congo.

But all those aforementioned issues notwithstanding, they don’t constitute a reason for war because they can be resolved through constructive dialogue.

THE TRIVIALITIES

But some sections from Kigali have accused president Museveni of a superiority complex derived from his ethnic background believed to have been Chwezi sijuyi what etc etc.

 While Paul Kagame is believed be a proponent of MAKE-RWANDA-GREAT-AGAIN concept known as agaciro which seeks to rejuvenate the pride of Rwanda, blah , blah.

 How can agaciro and a superiority complex lead to war? I find this to be nonsensical.

But the hatred between the two principals was demonstrated when president Museveni refused to  give a direct handshake to president kagame at state house by opting for a touch than a handshake on the pretext that the hand was sick with a bandaged hand.

 But the next day the Ugandan leader was giving firm handshakes to some officials!

But the reality is that countries can go to war for nonsensical reasons. For instance Ethiopia and Eritrea fought for a rock, lol. Oh dear!

All indications are that there is a strong possibility for war if a justifiable spark off emerges.

 Despite his involvement in many wars, president Museveni doesn’t seem to have any more appetite for war.

Given the time he has spent in power, he probably regards war as a risky venture to his 32 year reign.

And he could be right, given the fact that he was around when president Idi Amin provoked Tanzania to a war that brought an unexpected end to his regime in 1979.

He too must be waiting for enough provocation to counter attack the way president Nyerere did to president Amin. Nyerere bragged that Amin had given him usababu (reason) to get kicked out of power

Another interesting aspect of this conflict is the obvious consequence- that it will lead to the annihilation of one of the two protagonists-meaning that either president Kagame or Museveni will lose power in their respective countries.  

With all this at play, you simply don’t have to dream about any war between Uganda and Rwanda, at least for the time being.

The Author Fred Daka Kamwada Is A Journalist And A Blogger Kamwadafred@gmail.com

RESHUFFLE UPDATES; Chrysestom Muyingo Highly Considered For Vice Presidency as Abdu Katuntu scoops Deputy Premiership While Bebecool Is  Also Considered for a post in a Fresh Cabinet Reshuffle That Will Shock The Country

Hon Muyingo  might scoop the vice presidency Add caption

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is set to announce a new cabinet reshuffle for the first since he won the 2016 elections. The Ugandan president intends to announce a cabinet that will shock the country due to the new names that  are set to scoop juicy positions  

President Museveni has uncharacteristically delayed to reshuffle his cabinet due to number of reasons derived from the various challenges he has faced in the recent months that have forced to keep on postponing his changes to cabinet.

On the previous occasions, he has always reshuffled midway of his five-year-term, but this time round he has already by passed the midway term.

And the reasons for the delay have been mostly been beyond his mandate.

For instance last year he was set to streamline his cabinet he was faced with the togikwatako challenge (a constitutional challenge that required his input into the amendment of the constitutional to lift age limit for the presidency)

The Ugandan parliament indeed managed to lift the age limit that barred a Ugandan beyond 75 years and below 35 years from contesting for the Ugandan presidency amidst a lot of political chaos.

Since Museveni will be above the mandated 75 years in 2021 , he had to work tooth and nail to pave way for his own sake by amending the constitution that paved way for him to contest the 2021 elections.

The People Power Phenomenon

As he was smarting from the togikwatakato challenge another political challenge emerged from the Arua bye-elections where a local musician who had also entered parliament through a bye-election by the names of Bob wine launched a massive political movement which he dubbed as People Power.

Bobiwine was consequently arrested and tortured  amidst a lot of interest from the international community that even issued sanctions on the Ugandan government for the horrendous human rights abuse that had been occasioned on Bobiwine and several other members of parliament who were arraigned before courts law on what looked like trumped up charges. .

Bob wine was eventually shipped off to USA for treatment where he enjoyed international support.

He actually hobnobbed with international lawyer Robert Amsterdam who rallied the international community to look into the possibility of blocking aid to Uganda due to the chaotic political situation in the country. 

All this really hit president Museveni hard. He had to devise means to re-impose his authority on the country and dilute the people power crusade. He was obviously caught between a deep blue sea and a starving lion. .

He seems to have recovered from that and is looking at how to deal with the after effects of the people power phenomenon. But time seems to be running out on him.

But as the elective fourth term is threatens to expire, he is being forced to announce a new cabinet this year (2019)  , just two years to the next elections in 2021!

The Critical Considerations

And by the way, his considerations for the cabinet appointments will mostly rotate around issues that forced him to delay from announcing a reshuffle I,e rewarding the togikwatako cadres , fumigating the people power movement , regional balancing etc.

We have been informed that president Museveni has realized how powerful the music fraternity has become and is considering using as a tool to suppress the people power movement.

Fumigation Of The People Power Movement

You must recall that when Bobiwine ‘took the Gheto to parliament ’ and rallied the citizens to embrace the people power movement , president Museveni responded by sending billions of shillings to the ghetto.

This time round he even intends to make cabinet changes that will seek to challenge people power movement and also mobilize the youth to continue believing in the NRM govt...

He is therefore trying to make a shock move by naming Bebecool a minister as minister of the youth affairs replacing a lady he had fished out of Buganda kingdom establishment (a took backed kiyingi).

Bebecool, whose real names are Moses Ssali, is son to former minister and presidential candidate, Bidandi ssali.

President Museveni has already assigned Bebecool some work in the past which include some crusades in the United States of America and recently sent him to continue pushing the political agenda on local media.

That’s why you have seen him busy explaining Museveni policies on radio and television in a more sustained manner.

Bebecool actually advised that the Bobiwine’s people power doesn’t need to be fought but needs to be ‘won over’

And that was why you saw Bebecool donning red attire which is known to be a people power costume and even went ahead to publicly demonstrate that he had reconciled with Bob wine!

It’s highly believed that the president is very happy with the way Bebecool has handled the people power movement so far and is looking at incorporating him in the system as a permanent mobilizer.

That certainly means a cabinet post is on the line as well

CHRESESTOM MUYINGO FOR VICE PRESIDENT!

There is the other issue of rebranding his government by bringing in new faces.

And with this president Museveni has fished around for someone to take over as president for a very long time but woith frustrating results.

At one time he toyed with the idea of bringing in longtime opponent iron lady Hon Cecilia Ogwal as vice president but suspended the idea.

He has also  tried to lure former premier and longtime ally Amama Mbabazi back to cabinet as vice president, but Amama doesn’t want to be a another Edward Sekandi type of vice president (the ceremonial type)

Amama actually embarrassed the president when he mentioned to the media that he will not get back to government. He said this when the talks for him to be re-incorporated were going on.

This time round president Museveni is looking at opting for chresestom Muyingo as the vice president.

Chresestom muyingo is a very principled guy in the mould of former astute Prime Minister Hon Apollo nsibambi. He has been holding onme of the dockets in the education sector  but is looking like a safe bet to become the next vice president.

The real thing with Muyingo is that he is not (or doesn’t look) ambitious enough to destabilize the statutes quo. And that makes him the real deal.

he has also enjoyed the advantage of having worked with the first lady Hon janet museveni (in the eudcation docket) who speaks good things about him to the president.

HON ABDU KATUNTU IN!

In other shock announcements, Abdu Katuntu seems to be  already assured of not only a cabinet post but will emerge as a deputy prime minister replacing a fellow Musoga in Al Hajji Ali Kirunda Kivejinja.

By bringing Katuntu to the fold of government, there is a general feeling that he will have brought intellect and integrity to the NRM government that seems to lack in those aspects.

Hon katuntu , who has been chairman of the COSASE parliamentary committee was a member of the FDC but fell out with its leader Dr Kiiza Besigye.

He has since become a very big critic of kiiza Besigye and has been discussing his way into government,

He is likely to add another docket to his position as deputy premier, either as attorney general or something else.

HON MOSES BALYEJU AND OTHERS

There is also talk of Hon Moses Balyeku coming in as a minister of either trade or something like that.

Balyeku’s appointment is inevitably pulled by the fact that he will be replacing Hon Nabeta who failed to nail down a cabinet position due to lack of academic papers that saw him lose the Jinja east municipality elections.

There other names that are in the pipeline like  Hon Paula Turyahikayo from Rukungiri municipality.

She made herself a name when she defeated HON Winnie Mastiko and and influenced the defeat of Hon jim muhwezi in Rukungiri.

In such circumstances she caught the attention of the appointing authority and the president intends to court Rukungiri by giving her a ministerial position.

Then there is the much talked about rewarding of the togikwatako group that includes the likes of Hon betty Anywar, Hon Rapheal Magyezi ,and Hon Simeo Nsubuga.

Others on the list of possible deployment are Hon Odonga Otto, Hon Sekikuubo , and Hon mohammed Nsereko and Hon Banabas Tinkasimire.

Its also believed that the president is set to drop most of the ex-officios and bring fresh names.

In the next edition we shall navigate where Capt Mike Mukula , Dr Chrispus Kiyonga , Hon Kasule Lumumba , Prof Tanga Odoi , Hon Henry Banyenzaki are set to be deployed

Fred Daka Kamwada Is A Ugandan Blogger And Author

Chat with him kamwadafred@gmail.com

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WHY PEOPLE POWER IS THE WAY TO GO; Political Parties, Curses Or Good Speeches Will Not Depose president Museveni From Power

WHY PEOPLE POWER IS THE WAY TO GO;  Political Parties, Curses Or Good Speeches Will Not Depose president Museveni From Power

Bobiwine's people power strategy is more likely to eject Museveni from power 

After making three (consecutive) decades in power, president Museveni seems to be facing the biggest dilemma of his life;1; how to retain himself in power without being brutal, or  2;when and how to handover to another person who is agreeable to the entire country without antagonizing the status quo.

His continued grip on power has, however, invited all sorts of responses from Ugandans who are desperate for change.  Today almost all Ugandans who are not benefiting directly from president museveni’s patronage system are praying, cursing and wishing for the day he will either die or leave power, either, peacefully or otherwise.

As you read this, another desperate section of Ugandans are either registering new political parties or in the process of doing so.

Former Forum For Democratic Change party president Rtd Maj Gen Gregory Mugisha Muntu has wasted no time in this regard by announcing a new political party. Muntu has always prophesied that he foresees a possibility of power vacuum in the country because he foresees Museveni’s downfall much sooner rather than later. 

If you are not careful, you would be misled into believing that president Museveni’s government is about to collapse either today or in the next 48 hours!

This optimism about Museveni’s downfall is, to say the least, based more on wishful thinking than scientific diagnosis because there is no serious political or military threat faced by Museveni at the moment. It’s called blind faith.

Interestingly, this optimism for Museveni’s downfall is wide spread around the country.

But wait a minute!

Of course Museveni is not in any way naturally insulated from a downfall of some sort. But it must be based on a momentum built to eject him from power.  Something real (militarily) or political (a solid coalition) must be shifting gears towards achieving that objective. 

HOW DO REGIMES COLLAPSE?

History is abundant with lessons that dictatorial regimes don’t simply collapse because of being unpopular. They even don’t collapse simply because a despotic leader has killed his own people. Not even poor polices can evoke regime change.  It takes more than all that.

In a banana republic like ours here, you need to be very lucky to witness a regime change that is not violent-i mean war-driven. That is why the notion of engaging in defiance seems to be the most popular among some sections of Uganda’s political class.  But having been challenged militarily by over 30 rebel groups, president museveni seems to have insulated himself against armed rebellion.  

So what next ?

The only avenue for regime change which has not wholly been employed is a people power movement.

The good thing with people power is that it can easily be channeled legally through democratic means.

If an election is held and a given member of the opposition wins, then the people power will easily overwhelm the regime. But this people power cannot necessarily be achieved through political parties alone. You need a coalition of these different parties to merge at election time with a single candidate.

We have seen in Masaka that DP is still vibrant. But we have also seen that Jinja , Bugiri, Arua are all steaming with a strong appetite for regime change even without a political party as a rallying factor. This shows that everyone is needed ( as emphasized by Hon  Robert Kyagulanyi) 

African dictatorships cannot and have never been swept out through political parties, curses, prayers, good fiery speeches and wishful thinking parse! It has always been a combination of forces.

In fact I have not seen a single political party that has managed to uproot a regime on its own.

The Amin Example

President Idi Amin committed all sorts of mistakes which would ordinarily have taken his regime. But there was no political party to challenge him.

Those using cursing as a weapon for ejecting museveni must remember that Amin was cursed to many times but nothing came out of it.  

Even Wrong polices like the expulsion of the Indians from Uganda in 1972, the cutting of  ties with Israel and Britain in 1973, the brutal killing of the then chief justice Ben Kiwanuka, archbishop Janaan Luwum of the Anglican Church in 1977 and several other prominent people in the country did not cost him at all. 

How come Ugandans failed to mobilize to throw him out of power?

If you read Henry Chemba’s book , The Petals Of Blood, you will realize that by 1978 , Ugandans had lost hope of ever getting rid of Amin. This simply shows how difficult it is to uproot a dictatorship. 

In fact if Amin had not made a fool of himself by invading Tanzania, he would have died in power.

The fallacy that there were guerilla groups like Museveni’s Fronasa and Obote’s  kikosi malum is not convincing enough since they never held a single piece of territory on Ugandan soil! 

It took the resources of another country, Tanzania to uproot Amin. There was no input from political parties, no internal political mobilization from the Ugandans themselves during those dark days.

The Mobutu, Tsivangirai, Tsetsekedi, El Baradei Example 

Look at president Mobutu of Zaire and the way he bossed himself without any resistance from his countrymen. The late Etienne Tsetsekedi tried bambi , to do what Muntu is trying to do by making fiery speeches , promising change through political contestations etc. but he never succeeded in taking power from Mobutu.

Look at Hosni Mubarak and the way he managed to freeze the opposition. There was an opposition leader called El Baradei who had opposed Mubarak for very many years. But when the Arab spring swept Mubarak out of power, El Baradei was not anywhere near the corridors of power.

 Then there is the good example of Morgan Tsivangirai with his struggles against Zimbabwean despot Robert Mugabe which never yielded any dividends. Tsvangirai died without witnessing the end of Mugabe, who was later on pushed out by the military.

I don’t know whether it’s prudent to also bring in the heartbreaking example of Raila Odinga, who invested everything in wrestling power from the kikuyu in Kenya without success.  It’s the same fate that has befallen Rtd col Kiiza Besigye who has gone down the pecking order in the contestation for power in Uganda.

All those opposition leaders failed because they failed to marshal the people power to their advantage. It’s this people power that delivered regime change in Burkina Faso, when President Blaise Campaore tried to amend the constitution but was resisted by the masses. It’s the same people power that successfully drove Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Tunisian President Ben Ali out of power.

Political mobilization through parties can continue, but some of us feel that they will not deliver the desired change. Its people power that looks feasible at the moment.

In fact this is the major reason why Bobiwine has become a popular figure with the masses and the international community because he subscribes to a more viable strategy of regime change; people power. 

Fred Daka Kamwada is a blogger, journalist and prospective book author

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