Col Kiiza Besigye Has A Realistic Chance Of Claiming The Ugandan Presidency In 2021 Rather Than 2016

Col Kiiza Besigye Has A Realistic Chance Of Claiming The Ugandan Presidency In 2021 Rather Than 2016

Early this week, Col Kiiza Besigye managed to win the right to carry the FDC flag in the 2016 presidential elections after a protracted six month campaign battle against his comrade Gen Mugisha Muntu.

Apart from the fact that the campaigns were the first of the kind in Ugandan politics –in as far as intra party democracy is concerned –they did not have the practical political impact on Ugandans because it was not about accessing actual power at state house Nakasero.

To many ordinary Ugandans, the FDC Nambole fete was widely regarded as a cosmetic event designed to create an avenue for Col Besigye to bounce back and challenge president Museveni for the fourth consecutive time.

The Realities

However, what are the realistic chances of the indefatigable Colonel dethroning president Museveni in the 2016 political contest? The answers to that question are as diverse as the word itself.

The pollsters have not given Col Kiiza Besigye a chance at all in all the opinions polls conducted so far.

It leaves KB as the usual underdog in the political contest against president Museveni.

But as you all know, in politics nothing is a given. Anything can happen and you find KB at the helm of the country.

But for a start, there are two schools of thought in as far as Besigye’s claim to the Ugandan presidency is concerned.

There is a school of thought that asserts that the colonel has in fact never lost any of the three elections he has contested against president Museveni!.

The proponents of this school of thought use the verdict of the Ugandan high court which almost reversed the 2001 and 2006 elections but were restrained by a mere technicality that asserted that the irregularities were not substantial enough to warrant a reversal of Museveni victory.

The same proponents of the same Besigye-always- wins-school of thought also quote the former coordinator of intelligence services Gen David Sejjusa who is widely quoted to have said that KB has always won the elections but was only rigged out by the state. Those ones believe that what is required to get an assured win is the vigilance of the citizenry to guard the votes for KB.

The second school of thought asserts that while it’s true that Besigye is a good rubble rouser with a crowd to behold, his popularity is not substantial enough to dethrone president Museveni.

This second school of thought believes that Besigye has failed to articulate a more promising future for Ugandans and rather concentrated on attacking the person of president Museveni.

The same school of thought feels that Besigye needs to first articulate a more vivid policy alternative that is superior enough to beat president Museveni’s manifesto and eventually become president of Uganda.

While it’s true that both schools of thought make a lot of sense, in some ways, there is also the issue of the timing of Besigye’s presidential ambitions and the new political dynamics that make it difficult for him to make it.

RENTED SUPPORT

While KB’s presidential cause is supported by a section of Ugandans, approaching almost 2.5 million, it’s fair to argue that those Ugandans have always done it out of hate for president Museveni rather than love or unconditional support for KB.

In fact analysts insist that Besigye has been riding on the support that voted for former presidential contender Hon Paul Kawanga Semogerere-and the same group would vote anyone who contests against president Museveni.

Given such a scenario, the proponents of that school of thought contend that Besigye has been thriving mostly on rented support rather than on the support of people who believe in him as someone who can deliver the regime change he normally agitates for.

His worst evil has been his chronic failure to build a strong grassroots power base to add on the rented support he has been enjoying over the years.

And given the political dynamics in the last five years, Besigye can no longer thrive on the rented support because it has been grossly eroded by events.

For instance the block vote that he used to enjoy from northern Ugandan has been diminished after the end of the civil war of Joseph Kony.

Today Besigye cannot be assured of the support that he used to generate because president Museveni has injected a lot of resources to rehabilitate northern Uganda.

The only area where Besigye can somehow stir some excitement is eastern Uganda-which we would rightly consider as a form of swing state.   

And his Gen Mugisha Muntu rightly managed to fault Besigye for not having made any attempts at building the structures that would add numbers to the cause of regime change.

The Transitional Democratic Alliance

Those dynamics aside, the emergence of the TDA also puts Besigye in a very complicated position because there are new political bulls in the kraal with intentions to contest for the presidency

Given the fact that Besigye has contested and lost three times, it’s unlikely that he will be a marketable brand in the TDA

There is, therefore, a strong possibility that KB will be requested to give chance to a new player to challenge president Museveni in the 2016 presidential election.

In fact evidence shows that the Museveni camp is more comfortable with a Besigye candidature than a new presidential contestant.

Why?

Because having defeated KB three consecutive times already, they {Museveni camp} seem to have the formular to use against him.

But with a new contender, let’s say like Hon Amama Mbabazi Or Prof Gilbert Bukenya , there is a fear that the population can make a rash decision and vote for a new kid on the block.

THE BEST OPTION

In fact, the best option for Besigye at the moment should have been to skip this 2016 election, to give chance to a new contender to challenge president Museveni.

Then after abstaining a bit, he can bounce back in 2021 as a contender.

By 2021, there is a high possibility that president Museveni will not be eligible to contest, since he will be barred by the age limit-unless he tampers with the constitution to lift the age limit that bars Ugandans above 75 years from contesting the presidency.

By 2021, KB will be in his 60s and strong enough to ride on the sympathy vote of Ugandans who have seen him suffer with the political struggle over the years.

The Abdoulaye Wade Precedence

If Besigye runs in 2021, he will not be as old as Senegal\s Abdoulaye Wade who contested and lost three times before he triumphed at the fourth time when he was around 80 years old.

Mr. Wade ran for President four times, beginning in 1978, before he was elected in 2000. Wade first ran for President in February 1978 against Senghor, taking 17.38% of the vote.

Subsequently he ran in the presidential elections of 1983 and 1988, taking second place each time, behind Senghor's successor Abdou Diouf.

By the time Abdoulaye Wade shot to power in 2000, he was already very old but he managed to win a re-election that saw him serve two terms. And there is a big chance that Besigye can emulate wade if he makes the right decision and abstains from the 2016 electoral contest, as he had indeed done earlier on.

Of course some political events may not be necessarily be imitated, but there is a good chance that Besigye can have a more realistic chance in 2021 than 2016.

By that time a Museveni candidature is unlikely to make sense to Ugandans the way it does in 2016 because the political environment will be more conducive for regime than today.

 The author Fred Kamwada-Kamwada is a Ugandan journalist and blogger. contact him on kamwadafred@gmail.com

The Ugandan Music Industry Might Collapse If Government Doesn’t Intervene With Deliberate Policy, Yet Its Almost An Export Earner

The Ugandan Music Industry Might Collapse If Government Doesn’t Intervene With Deliberate Policy, Yet Its Almost An Export Earner

Kenyan musicians are protesting that their radios don't play their music on their airwaves. They are suggesting that at least a law must be passed to compel the local radio stations to play 75% local Kenyan music.

The Kenyan music industry was booming in the 60s but was quickly overtaken by the Congolese music which actually plagiarized their rumba style and modernized it to make Zairian music as Africa's best music.

But it must be stressed that Congolese music did not grow accidently but there was a deliberate effort by government to make it succeed the way it did.

President Mobutu Seseko

i saw a documentary of how president Joseph Mobutu deliberately vowed to support the Zairian music industry.  Mobutu waived taxes on the local musicians and even endeavored to support them in whichever way he could.

He advised the Zairian musicians to love one another-which explains why you could hear the Congolese musicians paying complements to each other

For instance when you listen to music by the late Madilu system, he will be praising the likes of Pepe Kalle and other musicians who are supposed to be his competitors. When Awilo Longomba sings, he makes sure that he mentions the likes of JB Mpaina , Werason and others  who are otherwise supposed to be his competitors.

All this was made possible because the late former president Joseph Mobutu insisted that Congolese musicians should love each other and have a sense of solidarity for the sake of their country.

In fact, one of the biggest achievements of the late Mobutu was his uncompromising support he paid to the Congolese music which grew to become one of the very best not only in Africa but also in the world.  

And indeed it’s not surprise that the Congolese music industry has now lost its strength because Mobutu is no more.  There are some Ugandan musicians who brag that they chased Congolese music from Uganda.

That’s not true because the Congolese music industry started collapsing after the death of president Mobutu. With the lack of Mobutu’s patronage, Congolese music started collapsing slowly allowing Ugandan, Kenyan and Tanzania’s bongo flavor to gain ground.

But In the recent five years Tanzania’s bongo flavor and Kenyan music has suffered a systematic decline mostly because both governments are not supportive enough.

The Growth Ugandan Music Industry

But While the Ugandan music industry is booming even without government support, we must not take that progress for granted.

This is because the Ugandan music industry has grown mostly because of the good will and enthusiasm of the local Ugandans masses and not necessarily through government policy like it was with Congo.

In fact the Ugandan music industry has grown rapidly mostly because the local musicians received a lot of support from the local media especially the print media.

For instance young upcoming Ugandan musicians received a lot of publicity from the newspapers like Redpepper that accorded them full page stories about their lives-which other media houses were not willing to give.

This publicity helped their upcoming musicians to get known across the country. Musicians like Bebe Cool, Jose Chameleon and Bobi Wine received a lot of publicity from Redpepper that they became public figures.  It was Redpepper which exaggerated their rivalry in the papers. This attracted Ugandans to get interested in what they were doing.

Other print media houses had to follow suit because Redpepper had gained ground over them by focusing on the social life of Ugandan musicians.

Theses musicians became an issue of public interest to an extent that that Ugandans were willing to pay any amount of money to attend their shows and album launches.

Today the Ugandans music industry has grown too strong that musicians have a bigger following than local sports stars and high profile politicians.

Today a high profile Ugandan musician like José chameleon is rated among the richest Uganda with a net worth of over seven billion Uganda shillings.

A man like Bobi Wine has assets valued at almost 5 billion Ugandan shillings.

Even upcoming musicians like Edy Kenzo now own mansions which a doctor can only dream about.

But while the Ugandan music industry is growing, it does not seem to have a long lasting foundation that can keep it up.

The Ugandan music industry doesn’t have the government support that’s why the copy right laws are not enforced to protect the rights of the innovative musicians.

Why Nigeria Is Growing Faster

But Ugandans must not take that growth for granted because the Nigerian music industry is now the fastest growing in Africa because the Nigerian government deliberately vowed to support it.

 The Nigerian government actually passed a law that compels the Nigerian radios to play 70% local Nigerian music.

This has helped very many local Nigerian musicians to get encouraged to produce more quality music that is enjoyed all-over the world.

Today Nigerians are wining all the awards on the continent because they have the support of their government.

Like Kenya and Tanzania which lost their edge to Congo in the 60s and 70s, Uganda might lose its music muscle to Nigeria.

Today Nigerian music dominates all the Ugandan airwaves.

A few months ago, local artist Bebe Cool had a very big spat with local radio stations and disc jockeys for ignoring local Ugandan music for foreign music.

Although many people grossly misunderstood him, he must have had a very big point in fighting for the cause of local Ugandan music.

The point to note here is that local Ugandan music can become one of our biggest exports.

The Jamaican music industry has for instance been the country’s biggest export earner since the days of Bob Marley.

WAY FORWARD

The Ugandan government must therefore get involved in promoting local music. Local radio stations must be compelled to play at least 50% local music to enable the industry to out compete the Nigerians.

While, we lost the competitive advantage we had as a sports hub of east and central Africa with Uganda cranes reaching the 1978 AFCON finals and John Akii Bua wining the 1972 medal, we shouldn’t also lose the music advantage we have gained on the continent in the last ten years.

Today Ugandan musicians have become much better than the South Africans (remember Yvonne Chaka Chaka) who dominated the airwaves in the 80s and the Congolese who dominated in the 90s.

Today Ugandan musicians are almost getting to the level of the Jamaicans.

We should however not be like Kenyans who have resorted to demonstrations, but make deliberate policy efforts to protect the continued growth of the Ugandan music industry.

Ends  

  Fred Daka Kamwada is a Ugandan journalist , social critic and a blogger,, reach him at kamwadafred@gmail.com

I Have A Dream That One Day Saif Al Islam Ghadafi Will Emerge As The President of Libya

I  Have A Dream That One Day Saif Al Islam Ghadafi Will Emerge As The President of Libya

Last week a self styled court in Tripoli sentenced Saif Al Islam Ghadafi to death by firing squad. This kangaroo court has since been condemned by the international community and citizens across the globe.

By and large, the death penalty verdict did not come as a surprise, due to the illegality of the Tripoli regime and the level of divisions in Libya.

They wanted some political capital to justify their existence which obviously came with the conviction of Saif Al Islam.

It’s understandable that different people have divergent views about the jailed son of the former Libyan leader Col Muamar Ghadafi due to the activities of his father.

 The idealists who associate his father’s regime with evil certainly feel the Saif Al Islam is certainly guilty and deserves a death penalty.

But some of us who believe in the principle of natural justice and empathy feel that passing judgment on anyone requires thorough analysis of facts.

The Legal Arguments Don’t Count

Which crimes were committed by Saif Al Islam Ghadafi?

Al Islam Ghadafi and eight other associates if his father’s regime were sentenced to death by firing squad after being found guilty of ordering the brutal suppression of demonstrations during the bloody uprising that culminated in the killing of Col Muamar Ghadafi.

Apart from, that crime associated with the suppression of demonstrations by armed insurgents during the Arab spring revolutions, they have not come up with any other crime committed by Saif before the war.

Although some of us are not lawyers, we have the legal knowledge to put the issues in perspective.

Common sense dictates that what we normally call war crimes should have been committed against unarmed civilians.

Was this the case in Libya? Not at all!

You and everyone who cared to follow the events in Libya know that the insurgents who torched off the revolutions started by attacking government installations like police stations and military facilities in Benghazi.

What do you expect government to do to armed insurrectionists?

In our laws, here in Uganda, when citizens pick up arms to attack military facilities, they automatically cease to be a civilian and become combatants.

And any action taken against them during those confrontations cannot be considered as war crimes.  When captured such people are not tried by the civil courts but by the military court martial.

This legally means that you cannot slap war crime charges against any government official involved in defense of the state.

And that is what Saif Al Islam Ghadafi is being accused of -, trying to defend the sanctity and peace of the Libyan nation.

 Political Masturbation

Therefore by convicting Saif Al Islam to the death penalty, the zealots in Tripoli were therefore engaging in what I can term is political masturbation.

Political masturbation can be regarded as the act of taking a political decision which has no effect on anyone else but yourself.

In the end, you can brag about it, but the reality remains that it has no effect on anyone of your perceived political enemies that you intended to trap.

For instance since Ghadafi he is now holed-up in Zintan, in alleged captivity with another militia, who are actually rumored to be sympathetic to him any decisions you take against him remains futile waste of time.

I mean, if they ( the militia in Zintan) were hostile to him, they would either have killed him on the spot, the way they did to his father, or handed him over to the ICC, as requested by the international community.

But since they have managed to keep him for that long there are chances that he is in good hands that are preparing him for a very bright future.

The prison photographs that have since been taken show a man in a very good health condition.

In such chaotic times of war lords and militias anything can happen leading to a change of fortune for Saif.

But if he manages to live for another two years (which I wish he does), he might live to reign as the next president of Libya.  

Why do I say so?

The Good Versus Evil

The legal issues surrounding Al Islam Ghadafi aside, this is a man who was known for the good and not the evil aspects of his father’s regime.

In other words, he was the cleanser of his father’s regime to an extent that there were rumors that he was planning to oust his intransigent father.

During the time of the Lockerbie standoff which culminated into the sanctions on Col Muamar Ghadafi’s regime, Saif was still nominally a minor.

But when he came of age, he managed to talk his father out of the intransigence and oversaw dialogue that led to the rehabilitation of his father’s regime.

He managed to do this when he was a student at the London school of economics where he managed to get access to world leaders like former British premier Tony Blair.

This process culminated into the reconciliation gesture that led to the compensation of the Lockerbie victims.

Saif al Islam was also behind the process that led to the disarmament of Libya from what the international community regarded as weapons of mass destruction.

The late Col Muamar Ghadafi had initially refused to disarm, but his son Saif convinced him to do it for the sake of getting back to the fold of international community.  

There are others who say that the disbarment was a mistake because it exposed the regime to easy military defeat which later happened during the Arab spring.

But the overall objective of the time of getting rid of the sanctions and getting accepted back into the good books of the international community was achieved.

 As Libya continues to be marred with violence, with the country effectively having two rivaling governments and two parliaments in Tripoli and elsewhere, there is no clear leader emerging to re-unite the war-torn country.

This chaotic situation plays directly in the hands of Saif Al Islam Ghadafi to emerge as leader, either through elections, consensus or otherwise.

 Once he regains his freedom,- which I strongly feel he will-, it will be very difficult to stop Saif Al Islam Ghadafi from emerging as president of Libya.

Like Martin Luther King who had a dream that the black race would live side by side with the white in governing America, I also have a dream that one day Saif Al Islam will regain his freedom and emerge as the next leader to re-unite Libya.

Ends

The author Fred Daka Kamwada-Kamwada is a Ugandan journalist, political activist and blogger you can reach him on kamwadafred@yahoo.com  

You can also deliver your comments below the article on the blogg