WATCH OUT; President Museveni’s Government Is Just One Stupid Mistake Away From Complete International Isolation
· Forget Elections, It’s The UPDF Military Investments In The Region That Have Created International Relevance And Consolidation Of Power For Gen Museveni
This meeting comes after several letters from the Chairperson
of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Robert Menendez petitioning
Biden to withdraw Museveni’s invite. Menendez’s letter was informed by another petition
from opposition leader Hon Robert Kyagulanyi accusing Museveni of gross
violation of human rights.
Menendez argued that Museveni has twice changed the
constitution to suit his needs, impeded democratic processes, turned a blind
eye to rampant corruption, and subjected civil society, and political leaders
to illegal detention, violence and torture with impunity.
He, therefore, asked that Museveni be regarded as an outcast
with the USA and that several dealings with him should be ceased, starting with
his invite to the December summit.
THE
DRAMATIC U-TURN
Following Menendez’s letters against Museveni, United States
Representative to the United Nations (UN), Linda Thomas-Greenfield paid a
courtesy visit to Uganda and held discussions with the President, reassuring him
of their continued need for coordination.
Greenfield insisted
that the USA still has a “strong partnership” with President Museveni and also
confirmed that they had received several requests against inviting President
Museveni but she insisted “inviting President Museveni was a good opportunity
to engage”.
She was obviously trying to seek out the Uganda president on
the regional issues, especially the volatile Congo where the activities of the M34
rebel have created a storm in the region confirming the widely held view that
the most prominent issue that keeps Museveni in the good books of the international
community is derived from the military investments he has made in Somalia, Congo,
Central African Republic and Southern Sudan.
These security engagements make president
Museveni an important player in the
geopolitics of the great lakes region. –which explain why Greenfield
was insisting on engagement with Museveni especially with the current
volatility in the Congo.
Without these UPDF engagements in the
region, Museveni would be an irrelevant item
to the international community and would
easily be isolated and face probable indictment.
This is because there seems to be no African country with the
military capacity to make those military investments on the continent.
Contrary to what most people think, elections
are no longer the avenue for Museveni’s
continued consolidation of power.
If Democracy in general and elections in particular had been
the main conduit to legitimize his grip on power, he would have lost power a
long time ago. Why?
SHAM
ELECTIONS
Because it has come to be known worldwide
that While Uganda holds regular elections, their credibility
has deteriorated over time, and the country has been ruled by the same
president since 1986.
The ruling party, the National Resistance Movement
(NRM), retains power through the manipulation of state
resources, intimidation by security forces, and politicized prosecutions of
opposition leaders. Uganda’s civil society and independent media sectors suffer
from legal and extralegal harassment and state violence
All this is contrary to what Museveni promised when he came to
power 36 years ago, when the then rebel leader Yoweri Museveni asserted that
his group was more politically refined than the past leaders and would lead
Uganda through a sustained Democratic path.
As a matter of fact, the NRM had a draft document known as the
ten-point program in which point number one stated the restoration of democracy
through regular free and fair elections would be conducted.
The then rebel chief turned president was
very clear that dictatorships were a thing of
the past leaders like Apollo Milton Obote and
Gen Idi Amin who consolidated all state power in
their respective hands.
But with the passing of time things have turned contrary to
the powerful messages of 1986.
POWER
Today the whole situation has turned full
circle as Power is concentrated in the hands of president Museveni,
who retains office through deeply flawed electoral processes.
Although there is parliament operating under the rule of law,
the Ugandan Lawmakers have little practical ability to influence legislation in
which the government has a particular interest, though there is more consultation
on ordinary policy matters.
The executive has secured passage of key legislation through
inducement, harassment and intimidation of the legislative branch.
CIVIL
LIBERTIES
Although the president was very unequivocal
on matters of civil liberty and freedom in the
first years of his coming to power 30 years ago, today
things have changed for the worst.
The Ugandan media features many independent outlets, but their
journalists face arrest, harassment, intimidation, and assault in reprisal for
their work.
Authorities routinely raid and shut down radio stations and
other outlets, and will take away accreditation from journalists in retribution
for their reporting.
The Committee to Protect Journalists, a press
freedom watchdog, reported that over the
years, several journalists have been harassed
and attacked by police and members of the
public while covering presidential elections.
Having reneged on the issue of Democracy, and civil liberties the
Ugandan regime is facing a very tight situation with the international
community.
When U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken paid a visit to
Africa he went to Rwanda, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa and deliberately left
out Uganda.
Leaving out Uganda from his schedule seemed to confirm the
growing perception of a diminished geo-political stature for President Yoweri
Museveni.
Last year the US Department of State announced a blanket
travel ban on Ugandan government officials who they say were involved in gross
human rights violations and undermining democracy during and after the January
14 general election.
The US Department of State also said the presidential polls in
which incumbent President Museveni was declared winner with 58 per cent while
former National Unity Platform (NUP) party flag bearer Robert Kyagulanyi, alias
Bobi Wine, polled 35 per cent of the votes, were "neither free nor
fair."
Blinken was focused with African countries that had fulfilled
the promise of democracy and he referenced Afro-barometer surveys that show
Africans are largely against authoritarianism.
Blinken acknowledged that delivering on the Democratic
dividends and the peaceful transition of power were fundamental requirements
for any country to register the necessary legitimacy. These issues are set to
be the subjects of the US-African leader’s summit which is slated to take place
in December 2022.
Having failed on all most all the aforementioned areas,
Museveni will be faced with a hostile contingent from the US at the summit.
In December 2020 the former chair of the US House of
Representatives committee on foreign affairs, Mr Elliot Engel, recommended
several Ugandan military officials for sanctions, including the commander of
Land Forces, Lt Gen Peter Elwelu; Maj Gen James Birungi, the then Commander of
the Special Forces Command (SFC); Maj Gen Don William Nabasa, a former
commander of SFC and now commander of Ugandan troops in Somali; and Maj Gen
Abel Kandiho, Chief of Military Intelligence.
Others were former Deputy Inspector of General of Police Maj
Gen Sabiiti Muzeyi, Commissioner of Police Frank Mwesigwa, and the Director of
Crime Intelligence, Col Chris Sserunjogi Ddamulira.
CONCLUSION
All indications are that Museveni is just one stupid mistake
away from getting completely isolated by the western powers.
Having failed on delivering Democracy and civil liberties, Museveni’s
remaining source of legitimacy now revolves around the UPDF military investments
he has made in Somalia, Congo and southern Sudan. Without them he is practically
finished.
The
author Fred Daka Kamwada is a
researcher
and policy analyst;
kamwadafred@gmail.Com
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