WATCH OUT; President Museveni’s Government Is Just One Stupid Mistake Away From Complete International Isolation

 

WATCH OUT; President Museveni’s Government Is Just One Stupid Mistake Away From Complete International Isolation

·      Forget Elections, It’s The UPDF Military Investments In The Region That Have Created International Relevance And Consolidation Of Power For Gen Museveni

President Museveni has been line up to meet American president Joe Biden at the US- Africa leaders’ summit slated for next month December 2022 amidst protestations from many quarters.

This meeting comes after several letters from the Chairperson of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Robert Menendez petitioning Biden to withdraw Museveni’s invite. Menendez’s letter was informed by another petition from opposition leader Hon Robert Kyagulanyi accusing Museveni of gross

violation of human rights.

Menendez argued that Museveni has twice changed the constitution to suit his needs, impeded democratic processes, turned a blind eye to rampant corruption, and subjected civil society, and political leaders to illegal detention, violence and torture with impunity.

He, therefore, asked that Museveni be regarded as an outcast with the USA and that several dealings with him should be ceased, starting with his invite to the December summit.

THE DRAMATIC U-TURN

Following Menendez’s letters against Museveni, United States Representative to the United Nations (UN), Linda Thomas-Greenfield paid a courtesy visit to Uganda and held discussions with the President, reassuring him of their continued need for coordination.

 Greenfield insisted that the USA still has a “strong partnership” with President Museveni and also confirmed that they had received several requests against inviting President Museveni but she insisted “inviting President Museveni was a good opportunity

to engage”.

She was obviously trying to seek out the Uganda president on the regional issues, especially the volatile Congo where the activities of the M34 rebel have created a storm in the region confirming the widely held view that the most prominent issue that keeps Museveni in the good books of the international community is derived from the military investments he has made in Somalia, Congo, Central African Republic and Southern Sudan.

These security engagements make president

Museveni an important player in the

geopolitics of the great lakes region. –which explain why Greenfield was insisting on engagement with Museveni especially with the current volatility in the Congo.

Without these UPDF engagements in the

region, Museveni would be an irrelevant item

to the international community and would

easily be isolated and face probable indictment.

This is because there seems to be no African country with the military capacity to make those military investments on the continent.

Contrary to what most people think, elections

are no longer the avenue for Museveni’s

continued consolidation of power.

 

If Democracy in general and elections in particular had been the main conduit to legitimize his grip on power, he would have lost power a long time ago. Why?

SHAM ELECTIONS

Because it has come to be known worldwide

that While Uganda holds regular elections, their credibility has deteriorated over time, and the country has been ruled by the same president since 1986.

The ruling party, the National Resistance Movement

(NRM), retains power through the manipulation of state resources, intimidation by security forces, and politicized prosecutions of opposition leaders. Uganda’s civil society and independent media sectors suffer from legal and extralegal harassment and state violence

 

All this is contrary to what Museveni promised when he came to power 36 years ago, when the then rebel leader Yoweri Museveni asserted that his group was more politically refined than the past leaders and would lead Uganda through a sustained Democratic path.

As a matter of fact, the NRM had a draft document known as the ten-point program in which point number one stated the restoration of democracy through regular free and fair elections would be conducted.

The then rebel chief turned president was

very clear that dictatorships were a thing of

the past leaders like Apollo Milton Obote and

Gen Idi Amin who consolidated all state power in

their respective hands.

But with the passing of time things have turned contrary to the powerful messages of 1986.

POWER

 

Today the whole situation has turned full

circle as Power is concentrated in the hands of president Museveni, who retains office through deeply flawed electoral processes.

Although there is parliament operating under the rule of law, the Ugandan Lawmakers have little practical ability to influence legislation in which the government has a particular interest, though there is more consultation on ordinary policy matters.

 

The executive has secured passage of key legislation through inducement, harassment and intimidation of the legislative branch.

 

CIVIL LIBERTIES

Although the president was very unequivocal

on matters of civil liberty and freedom in the

first years of his coming to power 30 years ago, today

things have changed for the worst.

The Ugandan media features many independent outlets, but their journalists face arrest, harassment, intimidation, and assault in reprisal for their work.

Authorities routinely raid and shut down radio stations and other outlets, and will take away accreditation from journalists in retribution for their reporting.

The Committee to Protect Journalists, a press

freedom watchdog, reported that over the

years, several journalists have been harassed

and attacked by police and members of the

public while covering presidential elections.

 

Having reneged on the issue of Democracy, and civil liberties the Ugandan regime is facing a very tight situation with the international community.

When U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken paid a visit to Africa he went to Rwanda, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa and deliberately left out Uganda.

Leaving out Uganda from his schedule seemed to confirm the growing perception of a diminished geo-political stature for President Yoweri Museveni.

Last year the US Department of State announced a blanket travel ban on Ugandan government officials who they say were involved in gross human rights violations and undermining democracy during and after the January 14 general election.

The US Department of State also said the presidential polls in which incumbent President Museveni was declared winner with 58 per cent while former National Unity Platform (NUP) party flag bearer Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, polled 35 per cent of the votes, were "neither free nor fair."

 

Blinken was focused with African countries that had fulfilled the promise of democracy and he referenced Afro-barometer surveys that show Africans are largely against authoritarianism.

Blinken acknowledged that delivering on the Democratic dividends and the peaceful transition of power were fundamental requirements for any country to register the necessary legitimacy. These issues are set to be the subjects of the US-African leader’s summit which is slated to take place in December 2022.

Having failed on all most all the aforementioned areas, Museveni will be faced with a hostile contingent from the US at the summit.

In December 2020 the former chair of the US House of Representatives committee on foreign affairs, Mr Elliot Engel, recommended several Ugandan military officials for sanctions, including the commander of Land Forces, Lt Gen Peter Elwelu; Maj Gen James Birungi, the then Commander of the Special Forces Command (SFC); Maj Gen Don William Nabasa, a former commander of SFC and now commander of Ugandan troops in Somali; and Maj Gen Abel Kandiho, Chief of Military Intelligence.

Others were former Deputy Inspector of General of Police Maj Gen Sabiiti Muzeyi, Commissioner of Police Frank Mwesigwa, and the Director of Crime Intelligence, Col Chris Sserunjogi Ddamulira.

 

CONCLUSION

All indications are that Museveni is just one stupid mistake away from getting completely isolated by the western powers.

Having failed on delivering Democracy and civil liberties, Museveni’s remaining source of legitimacy now revolves around the UPDF military investments he has made in Somalia, Congo and southern Sudan. Without them he is practically finished.

 

The author Fred Daka Kamwada is a

researcher and policy analyst;

kamwadafred@gmail.Com

CASH STRAPPED; After Borrowing Extensively The Broke Ugandan Government Now Plots To Print More Money Mobutu-Robert Mugabe STYLE

 

CASH STRAPPED; After Borrowing Extensively The Broke Ugandan Government Now Plots To Print More Money Mobutu-Robert Mugabe STYLE  

·        Ugandan Economy Has Failed To Recover From The After-Effects Of The Covid-19 Lockdown

·        Government Should Institute A Covid-19 Fund To Lend Money To Ugandans At  Fair interest rates

By the time of authoring this, Uganda’s debt burden had clocked 88 trillion shillings which is way above the recommended 50% debt to GDP ratio.  

Last week the NRM government was requested parliament to ratify its loan application from Stanbic bank, England chapter to fund its development budget. The story which we analyzed in these pages was earmarked to work on roads, electricity and other infrastructural obligations.

This week the same government has been in the news for requesting local Ugandans to lend it huge sums of money to resolve its deeply demanding recurrent budget. The money will be used to pay the public service workers who include the army, the police, teachers, doctors and other government workers together with other expenditures related to the day to day running of the government.

 

Borrowing in itself may not be an evil undertaking. But borrowing for both the development budge and the recurrent budget spells doom for the country.

Once the government starts struggling to fund its recurrent budget then it exposes itself to all sorts of troubles.

It’s this money that pays the police and other security agencies which deal with forces that intend to overthrow the government. Once they are not paid, the police will not be in position to stop protests of Arab spring proportions.

In other words, failure to fund the recurrent budget simply means that government is NOT in position to defend itself from its opponents.

President Yoweri Museveni has normally bragged that his NRM government was footing bills for almost 100% of the recurrent budge while also managing a respectable 35% of the development budget. 

During the state of the nation address, the president normally reads a number of projects fully funded by locally generated money. He has always read so many road projects either fully funded by the government or in tandem with the donors.

As you read this, it will be very difficult for the president to mention any infrastructural projects fully funded by his government in this financial year 2022-2023. Why?

Because the government is now officially broke and there are very many reasons which account for this state of affairs.

BADLY PLANNED BUBU POLICY

In the last five years the economy has had big setbacks arising from poor government polices like badly thought-out taxes that have dampened continued growth like the taxes on animal feeds that has accounted for the rising prices of pork and chicken products leading to near collapse of the poultry sector.  

The NRM government has been deluded to believe that they can achieve BUBU (build Uganda buy Uganda policy) that is occasioned by an import substitution strategy without first building the production capacity of the products normally imported into the country.

By trying to assert the BUBU plan they have imposed taxes on all goods that can be produced within the country to force local Ugandans to produce them locally.

But the problem is that the local Ugandans cannot produce those particular products at the same level in quality as the imported products. This has created a lot of confusion in the economy.  This import substitution strategy can only be implemented on a gradual basis to take care of issues of quality and quantity of those products. Now the economy is suffering because of this BUBU policy that has not matured enough to take off.

The economy has also been put on a setback trail because of the lockdown which arose from the covid19 some two years ago. While other countries managed to incentivize the economy by making a number of subsidies, the Ugandan government has done nothing to cushion the after effects of the lockdown.  Most Ugandans who lost businesses because of the lockdown have never recovered.

The situation has been compounded by the number of natural calamities like the floods, the locusts, poor crop harvests like maize, drought and hunger in some parts of the country and the influx of refugees from war torn neighborhoods like the Congo and Southern Sudan etc.

The situation has become so bad that the government has had no choice but to resort to open borrowing even when the debt burden had already reached unacceptable levels that are shooting beyond the desired  50% of the GDP.

PRINTING CASH

After running out of borrowing options, the government is now plotting to the last undesirable option of printing more money to fund its budget.

Printing money is an option normally used by governments that are cash strapped When government is bankrupt it has to either borrow or print money to survive in the short-medium term.

When the late President Robert Mugabe embarked on unpopular polices of seizing farms from the white Zimbabwean farmers, the international community slapped sanctions on his government it became broke.

This was mostly because he could neither borrow from the donors nor trade with the international community and his country had run broke.

He then resorted to the option of printing more cash leading to hyper inflation that it led to Zimbabwe’s economy becoming the laughing stock of Africa. When a government prints more money that is not backed up by productivity, it leads to chronic, uncontrollable inflation.

It results into too much money chasing very few goods. In president Joseph Mobutu Wa Zabanga’s Zaire, they printed money to a pint where there was a single currency note of  of over a million shillings and you needed a load of cash to make a routine shopping trip. People used to move with boots full of cash to fund their errands.

The printing of money devalues the currency, compromises the savings and has the undesirable effect of unsettling the economy in the sense that it stifles investment.

Some few years ago, the former governor of bank of Uganda the late Tumusime Mutebile rejected suggestions to print money by reasoning that the money will face unnecessary devaluation and become susceptible to manipulation from fraudsters who can also print counterfeit notes.

The best solution, therefore, has always been to borrow money from whichever sources available. This has been the main reason why the government has embarked on a borrowing spree that has seen the debt burden reach 88 trillion shillings.

But now that the government has run out of borrowing options, the future doesn’t look rosy at all.

THE WAY FORWARD

Government should reconsider its ambitious polices like BUBU that has resulted into unnecessary mistakes of imposing harsh taxes on imported products. This import substitution plan must be implemented in a gradual manner in tandem with the production potential of the local producers.

Alternatively, the best way to make BUBU work can be achieved if government also got involved in the production process and not leave all the production for private individuals. Government should also revive agricultural facilities like Kibimba rice scheme, Doho rice scheme to produce products like the animal feeds.

Secondly, the Ugandan government should acknowledge the after-effects of the covid-19 lockdown and provide incentives for the economy to recover.

This can be done by instituting A COVID-19 FUND that can allow cash strapped Ugandans to access credit at a fair interest rate to enable them resume business.  

Thirdly government should reconsider its high cost of administration by cutting down any unnecessary excessive expenditures.

These and many other deliberate initiatives can go a long way to revive the collapsing economy from sinking into the abyss.

The Author Fred Daka Kamwada Is A Researcher, Policy Analyst and blogger.;kamwadafred@gmail.com

 

THE DRC MESS; Rwanda Should Annex Congolese Territory That Has Kinyarwanda Speaking People While Uganda Also Annexes Areas Of People With Ugandan Connection

 THE DRC MESS; Rwanda Should Annex Congolese Territory That Has Kinyarwanda Speaking People While Uganda Also Annexes Areas Of People With Ugandan Connection

 

·        How Can A Country Bigger Than Western Europe Remain Unstable For This Long Without Getting Dismantled Into Viable States?

·        The DRC Mess Will Only Be Resolved By The Immediate Secession Of Several Provinces Of The Congo That Cannot Be Governed Effectively By Kinshasa

 

 

The DRC is the largest country in sub-Saharan African continent (only second to Algeria) and also believed to be the size of Western Europe. But for the last 60 years it has suffered the ignominy of being labeled the sick man of Africa due to the poor leadership that has failed to galvanize it as a viable state.

For the last 24 years it has been a sanctuary for over a hundred rebel groups with each trying to assert a different territorial presence.  For the last few months the M23 rebel group has been in the news for causing all sorts of chaos in the East to the extent of taking over a whole town of Bunagana prompting EAC member states to mobilize troops to secure peace.

The M23 openly insists that it was formed to protect the Kinyarwanda speaking Tutsi peoples in the Eastern enclaves of Kivu province.  The African leaders have done their usual drama of talking, talking and talking without reaching a fitting conclusion, yet the solution is all-over the place.

Congolese president Etienne Tsesekedi and all his predecessors starting from President Joseph Mobutu, Laurent desire Kabila and his son Joseph Kabila must have all known that this country is too big to be governed by one man from a remote capital of Kinshasa-but they all put on a brave-pretense face that all was well.

This country started disintegrating in the 60s when the political dynamics failed to add up when the first Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba fell out with the Belgians whom he openly told to leave the country to the native Congolese. He also made statements which were interpreted as communist leaning, which angered the capitalistic West culminating into his brutal assassination.

From that moment the country first became president Mobutu’s plaything before it degenerated into a theater of political schemes, economic exploitation and incessant civil wars. The Katanga province had tried to secede from Congo but was defeated but It was dissolved in 1963 following an invasion by United Nations Operation in the Congo (ONUC) forces, and reintegrated with the rest of the country as Katanga Province.

If the Katanga leader Moise Tsombe had managed to secede from the bigger Congo, it would perhaps have translated into a direct blessing of that country with a huge possibility that it should have developed into one of the most advanced African countries on the African continent and it would have had the domino effect of tickling other provinces to follow suit and advance their self-determination agendas into viable stable states.

Therefore, it’s fair to say that frustrating Katanga from seceding from Kinshasa was one of the most unfortunate episodes of that country because it destroyed an opportunity for Congo to split basing on original, historical foundation unlike other African countries that were designed and crafted by the colonialists.

 CASE FOR SELF DETERMINATION

Some of us feel that African countries which were designed by the colonialists at the Berlin conference of 1888 should be dismantled to fit into the dynamics and realities of African societies.  This Berlin conference was the one that led to the unfair, insensitive territorial designs that have led to the constant bickering and under development of Africa.

History shows us that a country needs to have societies that are homogenous to qualify the billing of a sovereign country.  When you look at most of the European countries, you will find that most of their territorial designs were carefully based on homogeneity of societies.

 In fact, it’s fair to say that Part of the reason why Japan and china managed to develop this much was because they were built on homogenous peoples who shared the same social-cultural values and a common history,  

When Otto von Bismarck was fighting to unify Germany, he made sure that all German speaking communities are liberated and fused into what later became the mighty Germany you see today.

Before Bismarck ‘s efforts, the Germans had been scattered all over Europe in different territorial enclaves. He made the tough decision by starting from Prussia as a nucleus to liberate all Germans and made a famous proclamation that German unification was not going to be achieved by nice speeches of the politicians and insisted it would be achieved by iron and blood.

And indeed by iron and blood we got the emergence of the mighty Germany which still enjoys the honors of being the biggest economy in Europe.

   BANKRUPT AFRICA

Now this is what has failed to take place in most African countries. The leadership of African countries is aware that these territorial designs were dubiously crafted by the colonialists but they have spectacularly failed to do anything about it.

Although some few intelligent Africans tried to resist this colonial territorial design they were fought the defeated by the brainwashed fellow Africans.

For instance, in Nigeria there was the Biafra civil war which resulted from ethnic, economic, religious and political tensions which forced the Igbo ethnic group, a majority tribe in the Eastern Region, led by a military officer by the names of Odemegu Ojuku to announce secession from Nigeria.

But the bankrupt and colonial Nigerian military officers fought and defeated the secession efforts of Biafra.

They forgot that the Ojukus who were fighting for self determination of Biafra were trying to create a country based on original African territorial design composed of Africans from the same ethnic background and language.

 

The territorial designs of the colonialists were so insensitive that they divided people who speak the same language into two. We shouldn’t have had Ugandans divided along the borders of Kenya and Uganda, Sudan and Uganda, Zaire and Uganda and Rwanda and Uganda that has led to social disintegration and disharmony.

There is a case of two brothers assuming senior government positions in two different countries –where Aggrey Awori became a minister in Uganda and his brother moody Awori became vice president of Kenya. What a shame! We should have had wars (self determination) to resolve those territorial contradictions.

Despite of possessing limited education, President Idi Amin tried to dismantle those colonial territorial designs by trying to annex parts of Kenya and Tanzania that had Ugandans.

SPLITTING CONGO

Now for the case of Congo, you have ethnic groups that feel threatened by other ethnic groups compelling them to create local armies for protection because the bigger state in Kinshasa cannot protect them.

The Kinyarwanda speaking people have formed their army in the form of the M23 on the pretext of self-protection. Likewise, the wa-Ndande , the Lendu , the Hema , the Mai-Mai and many other ethnic groups have also formed their militia armies to protect them from probable genocide. This scenario is enough to justify the self determination of these people into viable states.

But the problem is that the African leaders are too bankrupt to agitate for self determination of these people. They fear to tell Kinshasa that it should prepare for the secession of some parts of its territory into viable states to avoid this unending instability.

They regard themselves as pan Africans, but they have no clue as to what needs to be done to achieve a viable stable African state. These African leaders demonize colonialists but have failed to dismantle the colonial territorial designs of the imperialists. You cannot agitate for African unity in a continent of peoples who are disunited by ancestry and language to an extent of annihilating each other. You need to first acknowledge these social differences before you unite into one.

For instance the sub Saharan Africa managed to easily unite with the Maghreb Arab north by first allowing the Arabs to forge their own territorial entities with respect to religion and language.

But despite of that first act of seeking homogeneity, the Arab north managed to integrate with the sub Saharan south into one Africa after first taking care of their own homogeneity in their own backyard. This is the same model that we need to introduce to parts of Africa that have failed to stabilize.

Congo will only stabilize when an original African territorial design that respects ethnic differences and social dynamics is crafted out. How can a country bigger than Western Europe remain unstable for this long without getting dismantled into viable states?

THE WAY FORWARD

Since the issue is rotating around Rwanda and the interests of the Kinyarwanda speaking people in Congo, then a hard decision must be made to allow Rwanda to annex all territories with Kinyarwanda speaking people under one administrative unit,

This would automatically mean that areas like Bunagana should be added onto Kigali to accommodate all the people who have something common with Rwanda.

Secondly, Uganda should seek to annex all the Rwenzori mountain territories in a bid to integrate the Bakonjo on the Congo side into Uganda

The is because the Nande of Congo and the Konjo people of Uganda are a single ethnic group, which they call Yira (Bayira). They trace their origins to the Ruwenzori Mountains between the two countries. The languages Nande and Konjo are close enough to be considered divergent dialects and therefore be easily integrated into one Uganda.

IF Uganda doesn’t poses the balls to do so , they should allow the Yiira Republic to go ahead with their secession plans,

 Uganda can also annex Congolese parts of Mahagi to integrate the Alurpeople  in Orientale province.

After catering for the territorial interests of Uganda and Rwanda, other provinces of Congo should seek for self-determination by breaking off from Kinshasa and devolving into a viable sovereign state. And this can only be achieved by iron and blood , just as Otto Von Bismark once remarked during the unification of Germany.

The author Fred Daka Kamwada is a researcher, policy analyst and blogger kamwadafred@gmail.com