Is Gen Wamala Katumba Presidential Material?

Is Lt Gen Edward Wamala Katumba Presidential Material?

I have been an interested party into the succession politics of African countries in particular and the world in general.  The focus has always been on how people ascend to the helm of power and what they do to retain it for a long time.

One of the most enduring trends within the dynamics of succession politics is that most people who rise to positions of leadership don’t seem to have had any interest to lead the people in the first place.

Most of them normally are helped by circumstances to get there, while those who deliberately work very hard to become presidents normally fail along the way.

Of all the Ugandan presidents, only President Yoweri Museveni and Apollo Milton Obote put up structures to enable them rise to the Ugandan presidency.

  Obote used a political party (UPC )to scheme his way to power while Museveni built a guerilla outfit (the NRA ) that fought a five year bush war to deliver him to power.

Of course you can also mention that Uganda’s first president Fredrick Mutesa rode on the Buganda monarchy to get to the presidency.  But Mutesa is an exception because he was already a king of one of the most powerful kingdoms in Africa.

Others like Gen Idi Amin Dada, Professor Yusuf Lule, Geoffrey Binaisa, Paul Muwanga, and Gen Tito Okello Lutwa just benefited from circumstances to rise to the helm of Uganda’s presidency. In other words, they never had latent ambitions neither did they build structures to enable them to rise to power at any one time of their lives.

But circumstances played in their favor to get to the biggest office in the land.

And it’s interesting to note that of all the Ugandan presidents, only those who had prior ambitions and built structures managed to retain power for a longtime.

Those who got power accidentally and easily all, with the exception of Gen Amin who did nine years, all lost it very easily.  

The Hyena Hypothesis

The rest succumbed to the hyena theory of easy come easy go. The hyena is an opportunistic animal that doesn’t hunt for food but waits for to benefit from the hard work of other predator animals to get what to eat.

If you have observed critically you must have noticed that while the hyena doest waste any energies hunting, and therefore gets free game, it’s the most unattractive animal in the wild.

Ordinarily, you would reason that since the hyena doesn’t struggle for livelihood, it should look very good. But it’s the ugliest of all the animals and has a very bad scent to an extent that even predators don’t find it attractive enough to qualify it as a meal.

That’s why I coined the hyena theory which elaborates on the fact that parasites and opportunists get easy livelihoods but they never grow bigger than the predators. For instance while a rat eats free food, it rarely grows bigger than the cat.

Let me hope am not digressing.

The point I was trying to make is that while some people easily manage to get into power, they in most cases easily lose that power, especially if it comes so easy.

Only those who have struggled and worked hard for power manage to hold it for a very long time. You find that there is a clear pattern of succession politics which dictates that rewards those who sacrifice more than those who take advantage of circumstances to get to power.

Exceptions To The Rule

 But there are some exceptions to the rule where some others easily got into power and retained it for a relatively longer time than anyone’s expectation.

For instance in Kenya former Kenyan president Daniel Arap Moi took advantage of President Kenyatta’s death to easily get to the helm of Kenya’s presidency and managed 24 years in power.   

Despite of having been Kenya’s vice president and therefore constitutionally mandated to succeed president  Jomo Kenyatta, Moi was not considered as a favorite to rise beyond the vice presidency.

But circumstances played in his favor and he shocked his critics with a 24 year reign in power.

But Nigeria actually provides a good example of leaders who have had prior ambitions to rule Nigeria and managed to realize their presidential dreams.

In the 1960s, people like current president Buhari, former president Sani Abacha, former president Abdulsalam, former president Yar dua , former president Olsegun Obasanjo and former president Ibrahim Babangida all had prior ambitions of leading Nigeria and they all got the opportunity to do so.

Most of them were in the same age group and they joined the army at almost the same time. They fought the Biafra war and then embarked on fulfilling their dream of leading Nigeria.

Gen Olsegun Obasanjo enjoyed more having rose to the Nigerian presidency in the 70s before he handed over t civilian rule and returned again as a civilian president .

But Civilian rule failed to work because the Nigerian military had deliberate political designs to rule the country. That’s why while the military leadership was loathed by many , no single military ruler was assassinated.

 So you had gen Buhari taking over power in the early 1980s while in his 30s. Then Gen Ibrahim Babangida also took over in his early forties in mid 1980s.

Gen Sani Abacha also took his turn in the early 90s before he died in power in the 1998.

Although Nigeria is now firmly in the hands of the civilians, those young military officers of the 60s all took turns to govern it.

First forward to Uganda’s succession question

Many Ugandans are talking about the Muhoozi project, which is by definition president museveni’s presumed succession plan to have his son Maj Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba takeover from him when he retires.

But it’s silly to argue for or against the Muhoozi project at the moment. It may happen or not happen according to circumstances. But it cannot be ruled out.

But the fact of the matter is that Gen Muhoozi is well placed to takeover power, if the country requires a military solution.

The Gen Wamala Katumba Hypothesis

But other than Gen Muhoozi, another UPDF officer who is well placed to takeover should the country descend into a military-related situation is Gen Edward Wamala Katumba.

By virtue of his position as chief of defense forces, Gen Katumba is one of the people who can ascend to the Ugandan presidency as a compromise candidate.  

He has a moderate character, he is approachable and a willing listener.

Like Nigeria where a moderate Gen Abdulsalam was appointed by the provisional ruling council (that comprised of senior military officers) to takeover Nigeria after the unexpected death of Gen Sani Abacha, Gen Wamala Katumba is well placed to lead Uganda.

Of course, like all the leaders who have denied having presidential ambitions, Gen Wamala will tell you that he has got no presidential ambitions.

But as stated earlier, those who have exhibited prior presidential ambitions don’t usually rise to realize their dreams.  Remember former vice president Prof Gilbert Bukenya postured like a president in-waiting but fell far off the Cue  that he cannot even make it as member of parliament!

Former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi who had realistic dreams of ascending the Ugandan throne also suffered the same fate as Prof Bukenya. While Dr Kiiza Besigye who has been nursing presidential ambitions for the last twenty years might suffer the same fate as former serial leader of opposition in Zaire Etienne Tsesthekedi who opposed President Joseph Mobutu for many years also evaporated from the scene of Congo politics even after the death of Mobutu.

 But Katumba might hypothetically be the unexpected one to rise to the highest office in the land.

And he doesn’t have to scheme or work for it.

 Neither does he have to posture like a creature related to a presidential material. Its circumstances that MIGHT work in his favor.

 I don’t even think it’s fair to even debate Gen Katumba Wamala as presidential material as suggested by the headline of this blog. If you have read this far and you still doubt whether he is presidential material then you have a big intellectual problem.

Those who don't wish Gen Katumba to rise to power should pray that the country doesn't descend into chaos.

 Once the country descends into chaos , like its threatening to do at the moment, the political space will be open to all sorts of possibilities.

ends

The author Fred Daka Kamwada is a senior journalist and a blogger. You can reach him on kamwadafred@gmail.com or 0782480121