Andrew Mwenda
‘S Museveni-Mugabe Contrasting Analogy Is Not Only panic driven But
Diversionary
When Romanian despot Nicolai Ceausescu and his ruthless wife
Elena were brutally executed on Christmas day of 1989, it marked the end of Communist
domination of most of Eastern Europe.
Causecescu had tried to stop demonstrations by ordering the
security agencies to shoot at demonstrators resulting into the death of
thousands of Romanians on the streets of Bucharest.
The despot had actually fled in a helicopter but he was
tricked and forced to land in a remote village where he was captured, put on
quick trial and executed (its believed that he was shot more than 30 times).
During the trial, Ceausescu had been asked about where he
had put the millions of dollars he had stashed away in European bank accounts (like
most thieving leaders) but he declined to reveal anything.
Ceausescu said he was betrayed by his generals – one of them
had been in court making a paper areophane!- (which is why you should pity
those who have a lot of trust in generals).
After the execution, his death became a worldwide sensation
as live footages of the bullet strewn bodies of the Romanian despot and his
wife Elena were displayed on global media.
The then Zairian
information minister said that on a day after Ceausescu had been executed,
president joseph Mobutu rung him at around 3am and asked him bitterly why had
allowed the Zairian television to broadcast such bad news!
Marshal Mobutu had been a very good friend of President
Nicolai Ceausescu and had visited Bucharest just a few months before in 1988
with his favorite wife Ladawa.
It became evident that Mobutu was traumatized by the death
of his friend with whom they shared expensive gifts.
Mobutu’s minister says that he quarreled and hurled insults
at him for allowing the Zairian television to show the humiliating footages of
the slain Ceausescus and then slammed the phone in total anger!.
After that, the minister says, Mobutu never mentioned
anything regarding Ceausescu.
He also started spending long periods of time on holiday in
Europe.
It seemed that Mobutu got so scared that he started spending
less time on national duties and dedicated more time for himself and his
family. He also stopped tormenting the then opposition leader Etienne Tsetsekedi
which allowed him to stage so many rallies in Kinshasa
The Gist Of The
Matter
The moral of Mobutu-Ceausescu story is that most dictators
normally get traumatized when they see their fellow dictators lose power in a
very violent manner.
And their fears are normally not unfounded because one
revolution can have a domino effect on other countries which suffer from the
same oppressive tendencies associated with bad leadership.
So when Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe got into deep trouble with
his military, the comparisons between him and Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni were
inevitable.
Motor mouth journalist and spinner of the Ugandan regime,
Andrew Mwenda quickly penned an article titled ‘’Why Mugabe-Like Downfall Is
Impossible In Uganda ‘’ dismissing
any comparisons between the situation in Zimbabwe and Uganda and insisted that
the ‘smart’ Ugandan leader is completely immune to a military coup.
Mwenda argued that the circumstances between the Ugandan
military and that of Zimbabwe differ and cannot ignite the same reactions and
outcomes.
MUSEVENI IS MUCH
YOUNG !
In his panic driven article Mwenda makes very lazy argument that president Museveni
is much younger, or actually 20years younger than Robert Mugabe and therefore
still as the presence of mind to deal with the dynamics of power play.
It’s amazing that Mwenda still believes that only old age
should account for the downfall of regimes.
Yes, Museveni might be 20 years younger than the Zimbabwean despot,
but the circumstances of his continued stay might not favour him to stick
around much longer.
Regimes have collapsed even when they were led by very young
leaders.
For instance Burkina Faso’s
Blaise Campoare was much younger than Museveni is (around 62 years)when the Burkinabe
rose up and drove him out of power when he (like Museveni is trying to do now)tried
to amend the constitution to serve an extended period in power.
At 51 years, Former president Yaya jammeh of Gambia was much
younger than president Museveni when he also failed to overturn people’s power
and was driven out of power a few months ago.
There is another instance of Sgt Sameul Doe who captured
power at 27 but was thrown out and executed at just 37 years in 1990.
Capt. Valentine Strasser assumed power when he was 25 years
but lost it before he even clocked 30 years!
So Mwenda’s reference
to young age as immunity to military coup or regime change is so childish to be
considered as an advantage for Museveni to continue clinging on power.
Leaders much younger than Museveni have lost power.
Purging Comrades With Loyalists
Mwenda also argued that while Mugabe has kept most of the
bush war commanders in positions of command, president Museveni has managed to
purge most of his bush war comrades and replaced them with young commanders.
M9 therefore reasons that these young commanders cannot plot
an insurrection against their commander in chief because they feel a sense of
gratitude to him for having elevated them to high positions of command!
By stating loyalty as a factor, Mwenda was trying to convince
us that president Museveni has purged the army of his bush war comrades and replaced
them with loyalist who cannot even think or dream of overthrowing their master.
If he was a good student of world politics he should never
have mentioned or even insinuated about the word LOYALTY, as a factor that can deter
the military from making a coup.
Mwenda who has been masquerading as a student of Ugandan politics
since independence forgets that his friend the late president Milton Obote was
overthrown by General Idi Amin who was a very loyal member of the UPC party. Obote
had purged the likes of Brig shaban opolot from the army.
Even when you scan around Africa, you find coups like the Liberian
coup where a much younger boy called SSgt Samuel doe overthrew president Tolbert
who was also his relative.
SSgt Doe actually executed president Tolbert and arraigned
his body before the Liberians in Monrovia.
EVEN current president Theodore Ngeuema of Equatorial Guinea
overthrew Matthias Ngeuema who was his close relative in 1979. Therefore any reference
to loyalty as a caution to a military takeover is wishful thinking.
This makes Mwenda’s argument about Museveni purging his bush
war comrades a non-starter.
In fact it’s these soldiers who were not in the bush who
have every reason to topple him because they have nothing in common with him. They
might actually be thirsting for a new dispensation that befits their generational
expectations other than getting stuck with bush war swansongs.
So Mwenda needs NOT to be blinded by groceries but generate constructive
ideas that can advise our leader.
Mwenda dismiss the fact that President Museveni’s reign
continues to get eroded by the same mistakes that Mugabe has committed in the
last 37 years.
Our president therefore needs better advice so that we can
have a peaceful transition. So while Mwenda is still praise singing that a Mugabe-like
downfall is impossible in Uganda, there are obvious signs and symptoms that it’s
very possible for Museveni to go the Mugabe way or even in worse fashion.
The author Fred Daka Kamwada is a blogger chat him up at
kamwadafred@gmail.com