Yes, President Yoweri Museveni Can Easily Reign Up-To 2036
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By 2036 Museveni Will Be Relatively
Younger Than Robert Mugabe, Fidel Castro or Kamuzu Banda.
For some years now, I have dedicated my intellectual interest in reading books about comparative political thought and biographies of world leaders that reigned for a very long time in power.
I have intensively read about the life and times of famous leaders and searched for reasons as to why they ruled longer-mostly beyond forty years, -you can call them the four decade club.
This literature has led me to a conclusion that perhaps president Museveni can emulate leaders like Fidel Castro, the late Gabonese president Omar Bongo and Col Muamar Ghadafi and others who ruled for four decades.
Last week President Yoweri Museveni celebrated his 72nd birthday, getting closer to 75, an age that constitutionally bars him from seeking for another term as Ugandan president.
In the most recent years, president Yoweri Museveni interestingly told journalists that he believed that he wouldn’t be effective enough to govern the country after clocking 75 years because he doubts whether he would be strong enough with a fair judgment to rule this country.
But by saying this, Mr. Museveni was not being fair to himself.
Come to think of this;
The fact that his father Amos Kaguta lived beyond 90 years and died of old age means that Museveni still has another 20 years of active service-which is effectively put at 2036.
By 2036, Museveni will be 92 years old the same age as current Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe or the age at which Malawian President Kamuzu Banda ruled his country.
He will be the same age as former Cuban president Fidel Castro who passed on the baton of power to his brother Raul Castro and is still pulling the strings from behind the scenes.
If the constitutional obstacle that bars Ugandans above 75 years from contesting for the presidency or serving in public service is amended, only death will stand in Museveni’s way.\
And am already telling you that if death was to occur by natural death and not artificial means *(accident or assassination) he is mostly likely to live far beyond 2036!
The Nature of Ugandan politics
President Museveni can comfortably rule on beyond 2021 if he wished because of the nature of the political landscape in the country.
One of the biggest incentives for museveni’s long stay in power has been the nature of the Uganda political opposition which has lacked a vivid regime change strategy.
It’s one factor that will keep Museveni in power for another 20 years. The opposition has been made of elements that are theoretically opposed but NOTpractically hostile to president Museveni.
Either by design or default, the Ugandan opposition has been dominated by elements of the National Resistance Movement that emerged in the corridors of power with president Museveni in 1986.
Although they are opposing President Museveni’s regime, his continued stay in power is good for them because it enables them to maintain their wealth.
So by being in opposition, the Ugandan opposition is engaging in what can be termed as strategic risk management-they can neither be hounded by the Museveni regime or forces hostile to Museveni.
Since there are no fundamental ideological political differences between Museveni, Besigye or Amama Mbabazi, the Ugandanpolitical equation remains favorable for all the parties concerned.
And once the status quo spreads into the 2021 elections, then there will be no regime change to speak of in Uganda. It will be the continuation of NRM in government (NRM (IG)) and NRM (IO) in opposition-meaning the same group in power and in opposition.
By the time Ugandans forge a genuine political opposition, Museveni will have built more dynamic political machinery that will guarantee him more years in power.
The Health Factor
Another factor which incentivizes Museveni’s continued stay in power is his strong health.
He is one man who has never been reported sick in his entire 30 year reign.
Before he came to power particularly during the bush war, Museveni used to fall sick all the time. At one time he collapsed and was unconscious for some days. On another occasion he fell sick and his cooks (Madam Gertrude Njuba was one of them) were almost killed for allegedly poisoning him.
During his early years in power, Museveni used to suffer from sinuses but he got specialized treatment form Ghadafi’s medical team.
Since then, He has only suffered from finger sprains and flu.
But when you look at around you wil find that Most of the leaders who are destined to rule for much longer were obstructed by poor health.
For instance President Kenyatta was sickly in 1976, perhaps no longer in control.
“Kenyatta’s memory loss was at times so severe that he could not recall his signature until a copy of the same was shown to him to jog his memory,” writes Ndegwa.
At other times, an ailing Kenyatta would be forced to go through painful torture during national days – the result of a bad case of gout. He would end his speech “sweating profusely with pain, and those of us near him sighed with relief.
Kenyatta was in such a poor health condition that even the 1976 Israel raid on Entebbe that saw Israel planes refuel in his country was done without his knowledge.
As such, the Njonjo axis thought that it was better that they keep him Kenyatta in the dark on the Israeli operation.
Kenyatta was a figurehead for the
final four years of his administration. Kenya was run by a clique of Mt. Kenya
operatives.
There is another case In the US,
where Ronald Reagan was similarly kept in the dark, by a handful of
highly-effective mafia running the government because he was in poor health.
Even Zairian president Joseph Mobutu could
have ruled longer than the 30 years but his health deteriorated and he couldn’t
deal with rebel forces that ousted him in 1996.
With president Museveni continuing
to be in top health condition and dealing with the same friendly-fire opposition
, it’s fair to put Museveni’s reign in power to 2036. By that time he will be
92 years, same age or even younger than Robert Mugabe, Fidel Castro and Kamuzu
Banda.
THE LEGAL DILEMMA
of course we can talk of the unpalatability of amending the constitutional provsion which bars Ugandans above 75 years from contesting for the presidency as envisaged in article 102.
But since the promulgators of the 1995 constitution inserted a provsion that provides amendment , then it will be a foregone conclusion. it will easily be amended to give the man who has spent half his life in power to continue ruling Uganda.
so while Ugandans are jittery about when president Musevweni will leave power , they should adjust their EXPECTATION settings to 2036!
THE LEGAL DILEMMA
of course we can talk of the unpalatability of amending the constitutional provsion which bars Ugandans above 75 years from contesting for the presidency as envisaged in article 102.
But since the promulgators of the 1995 constitution inserted a provsion that provides amendment , then it will be a foregone conclusion. it will easily be amended to give the man who has spent half his life in power to continue ruling Uganda.
so while Ugandans are jittery about when president Musevweni will leave power , they should adjust their EXPECTATION settings to 2036!
The author Fred Daka Kamwada is
blogger and political analyst and social critic; chat with him at kamwadafred@yahoo.com
